Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd57d…e30f
crypto · 66 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$799 -61%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$804 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$87
Realized−$804
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses20 / 43
Open positions3
Markets (closed)63 / 66
History coverage157d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 3 History 63 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 62¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 99¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $498 $0 −$498 (-100%)
Exact Score: Slovakia 1 - 2 Malta? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Belgium? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 Sweden? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Madagascar? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 25? Up 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Slovakia 1 - 1 Malta? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 +$23 +442%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 04 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 04 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Georgia 1 - 1 Romania? Jun 02 $2 +$12 +596%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 02 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 02 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$4 +39%
Exact Score: Georgia 0 - 0 Romania? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Georgia 1 - 0 Romania? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 0 Madagascar? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Madagascar? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 0 Madagascar? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Belgium? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 Sweden? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Slovakia 1 - 2 Malta? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Slovakia 1 - 1 Malta? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Slovakia 3 - 2 Malta? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 22 $11 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 22 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 22 $20 +$19 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 22 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $10 +$12 +122%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $10 +$15 +149%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $10 +$16 +163%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $10 +$13 +129%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $10 +$26 +260%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $10 +$27 +271%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 78% −$807
world 13% −$1
other 9% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $12 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +35.6% +22.6% 25% 25% +38.7%
≤30d 31 -17.8% -25.6% 35% 32% -14.1%
≤90d 42 -29.0% -35.8% 33% 31% -33.9%
all 63 -25.8% -32.9% 32% 30% -69.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 30% -69.0%
10% -39.3% 22% -72.0%
15% -45.1% 21% -74.7%
20% -50.5% 17% -77.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.87 · official $86.87 (match) · 103 history records