Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:21:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd578…4d58
crypto · 1481 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$159 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$247 · open +$44
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$204
Realized−$247
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses1113 / 364
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1477 / 1481
History coverage24d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day76.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 4 History 1477 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$30
14 days−$321
30 days−$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Up 11¢ 11¢ $104 $102 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Miami Marlins 10¢ 25¢ $38 $100 +$62 (+163%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-90%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +40%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $26 +$16 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $17 +$7 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +24%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +56%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 4PM ET Jun 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +56%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $15 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Humbert vs Ymer Jun 08 $4 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 90% −$103
sports 7% +$13
other 1% −$67
world 1% −$23
finance 0% −$12
weather 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $7 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 15m
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) BUY Miami Marlins 3¢ $10 15m
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) BUY Miami Marlins 68¢ $25 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 37m
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) SELL Miami Marlins 39¢ $11 43m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 98¢ $42 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 47m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $26 49m
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) BUY Miami Marlins 10¢ $6 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 57m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 1¢ $10 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 80¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $7 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 95¢ $11 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 79¢ $12 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $17 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 82¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 250 -2.0% -11.3% 83% 30% -13.2%
≤30d 1477 -2.4% -11.7% 75% 41% -11.9%
≤90d 1477 -2.4% -11.7% 75% 41% -11.9%
all 1477 -2.4% -11.7% 75% 41% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover76.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 41% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 30% -20.4%
15% -27.8% 18% -28.1%
20% -34.9% 9% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.74 · official $203.74 (match) · 3152 history records