Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:57:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd576…d5e3
world · 91 markets active 12h ago
0.0score
−$142,879 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$61,691 · open −$5,264
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$133,650
Realized−$61,691
Unrealized−$5,264
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses45 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)82 / 91
History coverage305d
Avg bet$21,687
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 9 History 82 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34,831
7 days+$34,831
14 days+$46,706
30 days+$45,904
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 87¢ 98¢ $42,887 $48,777 +$5,890 (+14%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $41,200 $45,250 +$4,050 (+10%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 64¢ 74¢ $14,545 $17,002 +$2,457 (+17%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 31¢ 12¢ $24,515 $9,938 −$14,577 (-59%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $9,645 $8,095 −$1,550 (-16%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 72¢ $4,033 $4,503 +$470 (+12%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 36¢ 1¢ $2,089 $85 −$2,004 (-96%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Kurds declare independence from Iran? Yes 32¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-93%)
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Iran leadership change by April 30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $609 $0 −$609 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $59,316 +$34,311 +58%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $524 +$520 +99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $80,027 +$11,874 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $2,847 −$801 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $6,287 +$1,856 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $23,762 +$3,551 +15%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $34,133 +$4,330 +13%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $1,555 −$821 -53%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $2,492 +$1,018 +41%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $37,468 +$26,343 +70%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $31,048 +$1,336 +4%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $3,121 −$3,121 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $5,524 −$2,422 -44%
US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31? Apr 02 $2,351 −$2,351 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $3,209 −$3,209 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $2,142 −$2,142 -100%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 02 $2,505 −$2,505 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $13,629 −$13,629 -100%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $2,788 −$2,093 -75%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 26 $5,210 +$99 +2%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? Mar 20 $1,868 −$1,868 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 14 $5,073 +$3,244 +64%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Mar 13 $609 −$609 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026? Mar 13 $187 −$187 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $1,374 +$1,142 +83%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $6,722 +$15,562 +232%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $65,050 +$68,479 +105%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Mar 01 $2,457 +$89 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Mar 01 $14,324 +$13,469 +94%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 01 $11,847 +$22,145 +187%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $57,006 −$39,270 -69%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $19,455 +$29,652 +152%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Feb 03 $11,897 −$10,342 -87%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 03 $21,481 −$18,364 -86%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 03 $21,491 −$13,601 -63%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $149,524 −$103,202 -69%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 17 $26,000 −$25,173 -97%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 17 $23,986 −$23,986 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 16 $3,207 −$2,976 -93%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 16 $2,073 −$648 -31%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $11,946 −$6,836 -57%
VCU Rams vs. George Mason Patriots: O/U 148.5 Jan 12 $334 −$334 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 05 $21,178 −$21,178 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 01 $14,634 −$14,634 -100%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations in 2025? Jan 01 $1,656 +$70 +4%
Israel strikes Iran before 2026? Jan 01 $2,979 −$124 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Jan 01 $3,108 +$677 +22%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31? Jan 01 $3,020 +$1,092 +36%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Jan 01 $6,989 +$2,088 +30%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jan 01 $15,134 +$659 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 69% +$26,721
other 20% −$24,185
politics 7% +$4,266
sports 4% −$69,197
crypto 0% +$1,191
culture 0% −$5,751
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $53 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $27 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $4 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $0 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $0 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $3 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $11 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $2 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $2 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $2 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $20 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $2 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $0 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $0 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $153 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $1 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $0 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $3 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $27 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $2 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $3 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $61 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $4 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $5 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $5 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $5 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $0 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $3 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $0 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $0 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +78.6% +61.5% 100% 100% +43.1%
≤30d 4 +18.0% +6.8% 75% 75% +20.7%
≤90d 22 -27.7% -34.6% 50% 41% +5.9%
all 82 -18.5% -26.3% 55% 37% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.3% 37% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -33.3% 24% -21.3%
15% -39.8% 17% -28.9%
20% -45.7% 13% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133,650.36 · official $133,649.87 (match) · 1176 history records