Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:04:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd575…fdb2 world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$3
other 18% +$1
sports 2% −$1
politics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 15 +3.0% -6.8% 53% 7% -9.0%
≤90d 15 +3.0% -6.8% 53% 7% -9.0%
all 28 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 4% -9.1%
10% -18.1% 4% -17.8%
15% -26.0% 4% -25.7%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage471d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $70 +$2 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 23 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $34 −$1 -4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $71 +$1 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +46%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $6 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $31 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 26 $9 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 22 $1 $0 -22%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jun 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jun 22 $8 $0 +1%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 22 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Jun 19 $12 $0 +4%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $2 $0 -29%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 14 $13 $0 +0%
China wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 12 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $34 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $32 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $32 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $32 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $1 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $32 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $34 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $6 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $2 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $4 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 12d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $27 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $6 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $18 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $23 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $7 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $6 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $36 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $24 15d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $12 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records