Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:56:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd575…da33 other 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$107 (+1%) realized +$205 · open −$98
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate75%66W / 22L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$44
14 days+$44
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$12
other 26% +$85
tech 8% +$2
economics 6% +$11
sports 4% −$25
world 3% −$2
politics 2% −$103
finance 2% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +20.9% +9.3% 100% 50% +1.3%
≤30d 5 +20.4% +8.9% 100% 60% +2.6%
≤90d 17 -2.6% -11.9% 65% 18% -7.2%
all 88 -5.6% -14.6% 75% 12% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 12% -8.9%
10% -22.8% 7% -17.6%
15% -30.2% 3% -25.6%
20% -37.1% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$458
Realized+$205
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses66 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)88 / 94
History coverage241d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 50¢ 94¢ $112 $212 +$99 (+88%)
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 58¢ 72¢ $107 $133 +$26 (+24%)
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 92¢ 92¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B? No 80¢ 80¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 79¢ 31¢ $42 $16 −$25 (-61%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 50¢ $112 $14 −$99 (-88%)
Will Jordan Pickford win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 92¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dreamcash launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 27 $89 +$23 +26%
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jun 26 $21 +$1 +4%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 25 $32 +$16 +51%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 23 $225 +$4 +2%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $99 +$18 +19%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 14 $58 +$2 +3%
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 14 $22 $0 -1%
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 14 $58 −$30 -53%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $55 −$1 -1%
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 23 $227 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of February? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $82 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 11 $230 +$2 +1%
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026? Apr 05 $74 −$4 -5%
Will NVIDIA reach $228 in March? Apr 05 $83 +$2 +2%
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 05 $139 +$6 +4%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $164 +$6 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 27 $121 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 27? Mar 27 $143 +$10 +7%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 27 $145 +$3 +2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Mar 27 $42 +$2 +6%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 21 $162 +$3 +2%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 10 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 06 $201 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? Mar 01 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 26 $1 −$1 -90%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Feb 18 $115 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 February 9-15? Feb 18 $260 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of February 9 above $365? Feb 15 $100 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 15 $68 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of February 9 above $250? Feb 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will D66 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? Feb 12 $1 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 12 $96 −$1 -0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 10 $1 +$5 +354%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Feb 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 04 $430 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 January 19-25? Jan 27 $429 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of January 19 above $155? Jan 25 $429 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 January 12-18? Jan 20 $428 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) finish week of January 12 above $700? Jan 18 $428 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 13? Jan 16 $425 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 12 $146 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 12 $200 −$6 -3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 10? Jan 12 $378 +$1 +0%
Will Mali win on 2026-01-09? Jan 12 $38 +$6 +15%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-09? Jan 12 $5 +$4 +92%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Jan 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Infinex FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 09 $2 $0 -5%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on January 7? Jan 09 $424 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dreamcash launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $112 1h
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? SELL No 74¢ $11 32h
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? SELL No 74¢ $10 36h
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? SELL No 74¢ $1 36h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 60¢ $1 46h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 60¢ $12 2d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 60¢ $16 2d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 60¢ $12 2d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 60¢ $7 2d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 60¢ $1 2d
Will Dreamcash launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $89 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $124 4d
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B? BUY No 80¢ $19 13d
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $117 14d
Will Jordan Pickford win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $8 17d
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $99 30d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $105 30d
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 58¢ $111 44d
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 44d
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 24¢ $27 44d
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 92¢ $56 51d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 92¢ $55 53d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $225 65d
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL No 94¢ $226 65d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 97¢ $58 67d
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 67d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $82 77d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 92¢ $55 77d
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 48¢ $58 77d
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 79¢ $42 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $458.17 · official $458.17 (match) · 272 history records