Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D5 0xd574…425d crypto 758 markets active 4h ago coverage 321d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 320d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,045 (-3%) realized −$4,094 · open +$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%420W / 380L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$2,715now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,591
7 days−$3,718
14 days−$3,618
30 days−$3,810
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$204
other 16% +$1,089
sports 7% +$539
finance 3% +$258
world 1% +$25
politics 1% −$337
economics 1% +$43
tech 0% −$176
culture 0% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -73.4% -75.9% 15% 11% -70.0%
≤30d 102 -52.2% -56.8% 25% 20% -55.1%
≤90d 102 -52.2% -56.8% 25% 20% -55.1%
all 800 -5.6% -14.6% 52% 46% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 46% -12.2%
10% -22.8% 36% -20.6%
15% -30.2% 28% -28.3%
20% -37.1% 21% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$69 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

321d coverage
Net worth$2,715
Realized−$4,094
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses420 / 380
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)800 / 758
History coverage321d ⚠
Avg bet$155
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 800 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 76¢ $2,073 $2,182 +$108 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 57¢ $368 $352 −$15 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $64 $55 −$9 (-15%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $54 $39 −$15 (-28%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $32 $38 +$5 (+17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $26 $18 −$7 (-28%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+47%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 30¢ 8¢ $30 $8 −$22 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 315 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on August 1? Jun 20 $183 −$183 -100%
Will Team Liquid win FISSURE Playground 2? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Will 3DMAX win FISSURE Playground 2? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Team Falcons win FISSURE Playground 2? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 9AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8AM ET Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will FaZe Clan win FISSURE Playground 2? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 20 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 3PM ET Jun 20 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 12PM ET Jun 20 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Jun 20 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Lynn Vision Gaming win FISSURE Playground 2? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 10AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will HEROIC win FISSURE Playground 2? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Aurora Gaming win FISSURE Playground 2? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will paiN Gaming win FISSURE Playground 2? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 18, 4AM ET Jun 20 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Virtus.pro win FISSURE Playground 2? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 11AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$53 -167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 2AM ET Jun 20 $316 −$316 -100%
Will any other team win FISSURE Playground 2? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 11AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 3AM ET Jun 20 $110 −$59 -54%
Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 12PM ET Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Will TYLOO win FISSURE Playground 2? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3PM ET Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Will GamerLegion win FISSURE Playground 2? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 22, 3AM ET Jun 20 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 6PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12PM ET Jun 20 $336 −$336 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 9AM ET Jun 20 $68 −$44 -65%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open? Jun 20 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 9AM ET Jun 20 $379 −$76 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET Jun 20 $225 −$225 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 11AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 20 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 9AM ET Jun 20 $139 −$139 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET Jun 20 $66 −$66 -100%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 20 $360 −$360 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 4AM ET Jun 20 $225 −$225 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 11PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will G2 Esports win FISSURE Playground 2? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 19, 8AM ET Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Astralis win FISSURE Playground 2? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Legacy win FISSURE Playground 2? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 12PM ET Jun 20 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 2AM ET Jun 20 $68 −$68 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $74 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $89 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $109 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Up 89¢ $44 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $64 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $15 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $21 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $32 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,715.40 · official $2,714.90 (match) · 3500 history records