Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:06:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd572…7269 weather 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate65%39W / 21L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 56% +$17
tech 30% −$5
other 14% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 31 +0.0% -9.5% 55% 0% -9.5%
all 60 +0.0% -9.5% 65% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses39 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage113d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $298 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 15 $359 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $333 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $341 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 31 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 29 $777 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 24 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 01 $104 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $162 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 25? Apr 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 24? Apr 24 $189 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 20? Apr 23 $214 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 22? Apr 23 $152 $0 +0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $102 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $101 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 11? Apr 13 $128 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 10 $148 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 7? Apr 10 $167 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 8? Apr 10 $256 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 5? Apr 07 $258 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on March 30? Apr 03 $116 $0 +0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 02 $105 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 29? Mar 30 $216 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on March 28? Mar 29 $102 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Mar 27 $37 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on March 25 Mar 26 $213 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or higher on March 2 Mar 25 $219 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on March 23? Mar 24 $330 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 22 $264 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on March 19 Mar 20 $280 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on March 18 Mar 19 $311 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on March 17? Mar 18 $260 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 17 $394 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on Mar Mar 16 $219 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 13? Mar 14 $522 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 11? Mar 11 $521 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 10? Mar 11 $520 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets in March 2026? Mar 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on March 8? Mar 09 $490 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 08 $490 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 7? Mar 08 $430 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 6? Mar 07 $519 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 6? Mar 07 $518 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 5? Mar 05 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 5? Mar 05 $388 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 05 $518 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 3? Mar 04 $518 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $299 1h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $121 2d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $121 3d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $359 5d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $359 7d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $332 8d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $333 10d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $298 11d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $298 12d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $430 13d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $430 14d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $341 15d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $341 16d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $336 18d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $337 19d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $411 20d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $411 21d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $292 22d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $292 23d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $241 25d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $241 26d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $381 27d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $381 28d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $224 29d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $224 30d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $246 33d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $12 34d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $234 48d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $103 50d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 99¢ $162 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298.45 · official $298.45 (match) · 140 history records