Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:00:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd56d…ca54 sports 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$18 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate57%61W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$19
14 days+$39
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% +$7
other 18% +$4
politics 10% $0
sports 9% −$2
world 9% −$1
economics 9% +$1
culture 3% +$2
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +93.1% +74.7% 75% 75% +25.0%
≤30d 10 +45.1% +31.3% 60% 60% +14.9%
≤90d 31 +22.0% +10.4% 52% 52% -1.9%
all 107 +4.3% -5.6% 57% 15% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 15% -9.3%
10% -14.6% 15% -18.0%
15% -22.9% 15% -25.9%
20% -30.5% 15% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses61 / 46
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage233d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Milwaukee Brewers 46¢ 46¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will EDward Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $13 +$7 +60%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$20 +197%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 +$14 +216%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $22 −$22 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $8 +$12 +146%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $7 +$8 +114%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $10 −$9 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $7 +$8 +119%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 29 $6 −$6 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 25 $7 −$7 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 16 $7 +$8 +105%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 14 $18 −$18 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $18 +$12 +65%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 09 $9 −$9 -98%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 07 $8 +$12 +146%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Apr 24 $133 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Blackhawks Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 24 $6 +$9 +165%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 24 $9 +$11 +129%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 18 $16 +$13 +83%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 15 $6 +$9 +146%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils Apr 15 $7 +$13 +193%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 15 $16 +$14 +89%
Senators vs. Red Wings Mar 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Mar 29 $7 +$8 +113%
Stars vs. Wild Mar 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 12? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DRX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Mar 18 $3 −$2 -46%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jan 18 $119 −$14 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 11? Jan 12 $250 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 9? Jan 10 $255 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Jan 09 $244 +$2 +1%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 31 $254 $0 -0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Dec 28 $0 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 28 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 28 $99 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Dec 28 $99 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 23 $106 +$3 +3%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 23 $142 +$1 +0%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Dec 21 $99 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 21 $148 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $99 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Dec 18 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 46¢ $47 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $13 20h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 33¢ $10 26h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $6 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $22 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $8 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $7 13d
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Cincinnati Reds 47¢ $10 15d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Baltimore Orioles 45¢ $7 19d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Los Angeles Angels 38¢ $6 23d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 45¢ $7 27d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 46¢ $7 31d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $7 33d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $7 36d
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 52¢ $18 38d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 60¢ $18 41d
Hurricanes vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 37¢ $9 43d
Ducks vs. Golden Knights BUY Ducks 40¢ $8 46d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $72 57d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $61 57d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 37¢ $6 61d
Flyers vs. Penguins BUY Flyers 43¢ $9 62d
Wild vs. Stars BUY Wild 46¢ $9 62d
Warriors vs. Suns BUY Warriors 42¢ $6 64d
Magic vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 54¢ $16 67d
Sabres vs. Blackhawks BUY Blackhawks 35¢ $5 69d
Pistons vs. Hornets BUY Pistons 40¢ $6 72d
Oilers vs. Utah BUY Utah 53¢ $16 75d
Rockets vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 33¢ $10 84d
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils BUY Connecticut Huskies 34¢ $7 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.54 · official $46.54 (match) · 252 history records