Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:09:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd56d…4928 sports 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$333 (+14%) realized +$338 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%93W / 87L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$169
14 days+$257
30 days+$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$333
other 12% −$7
crypto 1% −$6
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +6.6% -3.6% 50% 50% +5.4%
≤30d 149 +11.9% +1.2% 52% 52% +5.1%
≤90d 180 +9.9% -0.5% 52% 52% +2.8%
all 180 +9.9% -0.5% 52% 52% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 52% +2.8%
10% -10.1% 52% -7.0%
15% -18.8% 52% -16.0%
20% -26.7% 51% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$338
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses93 / 87
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions6
Markets (closed)180 / 186
History coverage65d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 52¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 46¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Morocco 39¢ 38¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Over 54¢ 31¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$26 +129%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 +$15 +76%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $15 +$14 +93%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $20 +$11 +56%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 +$13 +129%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 +$11 +52%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 23 $15 −$15 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -99%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +54%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $15 +$14 +93%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 +$15 +73%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$9 +93%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 +$30 +146%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$4 -40%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$25 +124%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$16 -78%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$18 -91%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $15 +$9 +57%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 +$29 +188%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $15 +$67 +433%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $10 +$12 +114%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $10 +$10 +101%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 +$14 +68%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $15 +$14 +93%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $15 +$18 +119%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$12 +76%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$6 +57%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $15 −$9 -59%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 46¢ $20 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 39¢ $20 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 3h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $20 4h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 63¢ $19 7h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 7h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 28¢ $7 10h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 31¢ $3 10h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $20 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ $15 14h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 14h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $15 14h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 61¢ $10 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 23h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 24h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 43¢ $10 25h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 65¢ $20 25h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $16 26h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 26h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 28h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $15 34h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 35h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 30¢ $6 36h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY France 20¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.30 · official $110.30 (match) · 309 history records