Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:48:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd56d…8108 sports 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$12 (+15%) realized +$24 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -92% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -94% what you keep after slip
Net edge-94%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day74.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% −$17
other 21% −$1
politics 13% −$3
tech 9% −$1
culture 8% −$3
world 5% +$1
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% $0
weather 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-92.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -92.0% -92.8% 0% 0% -94.8%
≤30d 10 -92.0% -92.8% 0% 0% -94.8%
≤90d 10 -92.0% -92.8% 0% 0% -94.8%
all 10 -92.0% -92.8% 0% 0% -94.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -92.8% 0% -94.8%
10% ← realistic here -93.5% 0% -95.3%
15% -94.1% 0% -95.8%
20% -94.7% 0% -96.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -94% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -92% · $-wt -94% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions59
Markets (closed)10 / 69
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day74.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 59 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? Yes $1 $2 +$2 (+150%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No $1 $2 +$1 (+143%)
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Elias Ymer 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx PortlandFire 12¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Gracie Abrams have a #1 hit in the US in June? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will Davido perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Bruno Fernandez 17¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 200k and 250k? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-15? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Lorenzo Giustino 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Bangladesh 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Mistral AI IPO before 2027? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Afghanistan 14¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be less than 200k? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will "i hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the Billboard Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $1 $0 -20%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Map Handicap: G2.A (-1.5) vs SPARTA (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Yuliana Lizarazo Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El BUY Yes $1 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 21¢ $1 1h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino BUY Lorenzo Giustino 17¢ $1 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 12¢ $5 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 21¢ $1 1h
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No $1 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Rabiu Kwankwaso win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Rotimi Amaechi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY No $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY No $1 1h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin BUY Yes $1 1h
Will "i hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the Billboard BUY Yes $1 1h
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Davido perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halfti BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Gracie Abrams have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 3 weeks? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes $1 1h
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes $1 2h
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes $1 2h
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.38 · official $51.38 (match) · 74 history records