Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:11:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd56b…342d sports 310 markets active 0h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$23,304 (-6%) realized −$23,647 · open +$343
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%157W / 152L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,346per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1,414est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,639now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,249
7 days−$6,351
14 days−$4,572
30 days−$4,572
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$24,809
crypto 1% +$244
other 1% +$1,445
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -23.9% -31.2% 38% 36% -24.9%
≤30d 60 -18.0% -25.8% 42% 40% -18.5%
≤90d 207 -30.8% -37.4% 37% 35% -36.5%
all 309 -11.2% -19.7% 51% 43% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 43% -14.3%
10% -27.4% 35% -22.5%
15% -34.4% 29% -30.0%
20% -40.8% 23% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$1,360) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$500 vs −$671 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$2,639
Realized−$23,647
Unrealized+$343
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses157 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$1,414
Open positions1
Markets (closed)309 / 310
History coverage233d
Avg bet$1,346
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 87¢ 100¢ $2,296 $2,639 +$343 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 28 $888 +$423 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $410 −$200 -49%
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $50 +$40 +81%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2,310 +$1,863 +81%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $307 +$317 +103%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $1,682 −$1,618 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $1,105 −$398 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $559 +$380 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $543 +$109 +20%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $797 −$780 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 27 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $264 +$69 +26%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $207 −$68 -33%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $191 −$188 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $198 +$550 +278%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $312 −$280 -90%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $691 −$691 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $525 −$525 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $293 −$293 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 26 $804 −$804 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $574 −$574 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 26 $636 −$636 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $960 −$960 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $994 −$994 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $1,992 −$1,900 -95%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $2,111 −$2,111 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $3,030 +$744 +24%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $2,602 −$142 -5%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $1,712 +$348 +20%
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Jun 26 $1,183 +$522 +44%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $1,210 −$21 -2%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $633 +$576 +91%
Valorant: Riddle vs Fennel - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $441 +$193 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $569 −$274 -48%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag Jun 25 $577 +$384 +67%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $295 −$291 -99%
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Team Novaq - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $144 −$144 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $402 −$147 -37%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $697 −$13 -2%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,003 +$105 +10%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $737 −$11 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $417 −$264 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $207 +$201 +97%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 22 $148 −$145 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $147 −$143 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $531 +$772 +145%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $318 +$214 +67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $293 −$293 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $350 +$967 +276%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 87¢ $5 20m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 87¢ $38 20m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 87¢ $48 20m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 87¢ $34 20m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 87¢ $30 20m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 87¢ $43 20m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 87¢ $91 20m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 87¢ $44 20m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 87¢ $44 20m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 87¢ $8 20m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 87¢ $50 20m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 87¢ $16 20m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 87¢ $30 20m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 87¢ $34 20m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 87¢ $34 20m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 87¢ $8 20m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 87¢ $44 20m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 87¢ $383 20m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 87¢ $285 20m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 86¢ $614 21m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 86¢ $18 21m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 86¢ $61 21m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 86¢ $61 21m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 86¢ $35 21m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 90¢ $101 25m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 90¢ $18 25m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 90¢ $121 25m
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group SELL YFT Esports 100¢ $1,311 59m
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY YFT Esports 69¢ $192 1h
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY YFT Esports 82¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,639.44 · official $2,639.44 (match) · 1230 history records