Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd569…cfef other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$28 (+5%) realized +$33 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$69
14 days+$69
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% +$73
other 32% +$22
crypto 17% −$78
politics 16% −$4
world 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +132.3% +110.2% 100% 100% +104.7%
≤30d 2 +132.3% +110.2% 100% 100% +104.7%
≤90d 2 +132.3% +110.2% 100% 100% +104.7%
all 34 +15.6% +4.6% 26% 24% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.6% 24% -3.7%
10% -5.4% 24% -12.9%
15% -14.5% 21% -21.3%
20% -22.9% 21% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +126% too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late +88% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$7 · ×3.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$33
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 25
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)34 / 40
History coverage204d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 47¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Austria 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Over 10¢ 4¢ $10 $5 −$6 (-56%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $24 +$46 +188%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Mar 04 $40 −$2 -6%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jan 22 $40 $0 -0%
GPT ads by March 31? Jan 21 $20 +$21 +107%
Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Jan 31? Jan 21 $10 −$8 -83%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $29 +$1 +3%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Jan 17 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Angola win on 2025-12-26? Dec 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Jay-Z be named in newly released Epstein files? Dec 25 $8 +$58 +684%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on December 11? Dec 05 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 05 $2 +$20 +982%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 2? Nov 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 30? Nov 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by December 31? Nov 29 $6 +$10 +156%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? Nov 28 $20 −$14 -69%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 26? Nov 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on November 28? Nov 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 27? Nov 26 $3 +$6 +182%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Nov 26 $13 −$3 -20%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 2? Nov 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Nov 26 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Nov 26 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Nov 26 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? Nov 26 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Nov 26 $2 $0 -22%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on November 25? Nov 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Nov 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 24? Nov 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on November 24? Nov 24 $27 +$9 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $20 2h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 25¢ $10 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $23 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $11 2h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $24 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 7h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $38 104d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $40 145d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $40 145d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $40 146d
GPT ads by March 31? SELL No 4¢ $9 146d
Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Jan 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 146d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 7¢ $30 146d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 6¢ $29 150d
GPT ads by March 31? BUY No 5¢ $10 150d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 150d
GPT ads by March 31? SELL Yes 95¢ $33 150d
Will Angola win on 2025-12-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $37 172d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 172d
Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Jan 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 172d
GPT ads by March 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 172d
Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on December 11? BUY Yes 23¢ $22 193d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 SELL Yes 83¢ $22 193d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 2? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 199d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 199d
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by December 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $16 199d
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by December 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 200d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 200d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.98 · official $93.83 · 75 history records