Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:12:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D5 0xd569…48c1 other 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 681d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$286 (-0%) realized −$453 · open +$167
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%56W / 67L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$480per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$4,671now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$125
14 days+$130
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$399
world 9% +$54
sports 8% −$788
politics 3% −$235
finance 1% −$92
culture 0% +$250
crypto 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +27.2% +15.1% 64% 64% +10.5%
≤30d 16 +27.4% +15.2% 62% 62% +8.5%
≤90d 73 +5.0% -5.0% 58% 47% -3.3%
all 123 +1.5% -8.2% 46% 36% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 36% -10.3%
10% -17.0% 31% -18.9%
15% -25.0% 20% -26.7%
20% -32.3% 18% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$525) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$155 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

681d coverage
Net worth$4,671
Realized−$453
Unrealized+$167
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses56 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions28
Markets (closed)123 / 151
History coverage681d
Avg bet$480
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $1,000 $1,104 +$104 (+10%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 78¢ 88¢ $710 $805 +$95 (+13%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 86¢ 77¢ $750 $676 −$74 (-10%)
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes 50¢ 59¢ $362 $426 +$64 (+18%)
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 73¢ 66¢ $251 $228 −$22 (-9%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 27¢ 55¢ $108 $218 +$110 (+102%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $125 $140 +$15 (+12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $150 $137 −$13 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $123 −$27 (-18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? No 85¢ 97¢ $71 $81 +$10 (+14%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $59 +$9 (+17%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 51¢ 48¢ $61 $58 −$2 (-4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $75 $55 −$20 (-27%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $37 −$13 (-25%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $36 −$14 (-27%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $34 −$16 (-31%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $32 +$8 (+30%)
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes 16¢ 34¢ $14 $29 +$15 (+109%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $18 −$32 (-64%)
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes 21¢ 13¢ $23 $14 −$9 (-38%)
Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $12 $11 −$2 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 +$26 +52%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $25 +$8 +33%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $52 +$36 +70%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $75 −$1 -1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $34 +$24 +70%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 22 $100 +$34 +33%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $134 −$60 -45%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 +$30 +59%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 19 $5 +$1 +24%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $51 +$38 +75%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$37 +366%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $39 −$38 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $79 $0 -0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? May 14 $1,493 +$175 +12%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? May 09 $881 −$13 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 09 $230 +$265 +115%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $3,046 −$45 -2%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 05 $200 +$283 +141%
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? May 04 $149 +$91 +61%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $1,981 +$159 +8%
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 04 $1,536 +$238 +16%
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 04 $2,074 +$578 +28%
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? May 02 $2,220 +$24 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? May 02 $691 +$243 +35%
Space FDV above $5M one day after launch? Apr 30 $90 −$45 -50%
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 30 $491 +$111 +23%
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $190 −$125 -66%
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $280 −$146 -52%
Space FDV above $80M one day after launch? Apr 29 $1,328 +$692 +52%
Space FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 29 $1,714 +$499 +29%
Space FDV above $60M one day after launch? Apr 29 $5 +$4 +80%
Space FDV above $15M one day after launch? Apr 29 $1,216 +$487 +40%
Space FDV above $160M one day after launch? Apr 29 $151 +$8 +5%
Space FDV above $140M one day after launch? Apr 29 $91 +$8 +9%
Space FDV above $40M one day after launch? Apr 29 $1,834 +$55 +3%
Gensyn FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 29 $182 −$9 -5%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 28 $640 −$78 -12%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? Apr 28 $50 −$32 -63%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 15%+? Apr 27 $116 +$51 +44%
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: FALKE Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - LES Regular Season Apr 15 $1,027 −$487 -48%
Will Rory McIlroy finish as leader after Round 1? Apr 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next video? Apr 15 $446 −$446 -100%
Will "Bully - Kanye West" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week o Apr 15 $184 +$186 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 54m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $51 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 73¢ $34 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $25 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 5h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 11h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 25h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 28h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 62¢ $49 30h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 62¢ $1 30h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 48¢ $24 31h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $26 31h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 50¢ $10 31h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 50¢ $15 31h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 31h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 31h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $25 31h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 62¢ $50 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 58¢ $34 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $43 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 75¢ $72 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 75¢ $29 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $36 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $11 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $9 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $8 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $6 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 49¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,671.33 · official $4,671.33 (match) · 1281 history records