Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:16:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D5 0xd567…e10d other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$90 (-2%) realized +$214 · open −$304
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%22W / 17L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$3,934now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$75
14 days+$75
30 days+$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$268
crypto 3% −$16
sports 3% +$111
world 0% +$6
politics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +15.4% +4.4% 25% 25% +10.5%
≤30d 5 +29.5% +17.2% 40% 40% +23.8%
≤90d 29 -7.6% -16.4% 45% 45% +3.1%
all 39 -0.6% -10.1% 56% 49% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 49% +3.8%
10% -18.7% 49% -6.1%
15% -26.5% 38% -15.2%
20% -33.7% 28% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$3,934
Realized+$214
Unrealized−$304
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses22 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)39 / 46
History coverage118d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,590 $2,431 −$159 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $972 $1,080 +$108 (+11%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $106 $128 +$22 (+21%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $220 $117 −$103 (-47%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $68 −$32 (-32%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $25 −$125 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $102 −$11 -10%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 +$106 +106%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $25 −$5 -20%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $111 −$16 -14%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 14 $26 −$8 -29%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $16 +$4 +25%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $10 +$9 +93%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $10 +$3 +31%
Fulham FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $150 −$25 -17%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Apr 07 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 29 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 29 $10 +$13 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 27 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? Mar 27 $18 −$10 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 26 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 19 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 18 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 18 $10 +$6 +59%
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $10 +$4 +45%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17? Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Juventus FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 2.5 Feb 26 $15 +$12 +79%
Will Bayer Leverkusen advance to the round of 16? Feb 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union a Feb 25 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 24? Feb 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on February 24? Feb 24 $20 +$5 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $92 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $55 9h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $206 46h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $20 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $15 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,663 14d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $998 24d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 25d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 28d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $104 29d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 32d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $28 35d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 38d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 39d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $20 39d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $16 41d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $31 41d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $30 44d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $9 44d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 49d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 49d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 53d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $8 53d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY No 39¢ $10 53d
Fulham FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 57d
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 76¢ $10 57d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $31 57d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $43 57d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $25 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,934.28 · official $3,934.28 (match) · 174 history records