Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:16:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd564…58d0
weather · 175 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$319 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$69
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$253
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses52 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)172 / 175
History coverage71d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day42.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 3 History 172 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days+$430
14 days+$841
30 days+$969
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $48 $120 +$71 (+148%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Yes 48¢ 49¢ $86 $88 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 25? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 24? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 24? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $131 $0 −$131 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 26? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 20? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 26? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 18? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 20? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 23? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 26? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 24? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 29? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C or below on June 1? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 7? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C or below on May 12? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 11? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 25? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 30? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $45 +$78 +171%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 13 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $27 +$20 +77%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $24 +$26 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 −$24 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $60 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $78 −$49 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $89 +$135 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $90 +$113 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 09 $77 +$73 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 7? Jun 08 $88 +$147 +167%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 6? Jun 08 $71 +$111 +157%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 07 $82 +$99 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 05 $93 +$162 +174%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 3? Jun 04 $284 +$132 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $75 −$67 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $90 −$61 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $85 −$72 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 2? Jun 03 $79 +$112 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $22 −$22 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $57 −$11 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $62 +$256 +416%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $108 −$87 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C or below on June 1? Jun 01 $27 −$27 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $64 −$52 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $76 −$63 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$4 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 31? Jun 01 $354 +$158 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 31? May 31 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 31? May 31 $248 −$161 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 31? May 31 $111 −$91 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 31? May 31 $27 −$20 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 30? May 30 $34 −$7 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 30? May 30 $104 −$101 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 29? May 30 $103 +$192 +187%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 30? May 30 $17 −$16 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 29? May 29 $71 −$58 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 28? May 29 $129 +$164 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 28? May 28 $134 −$70 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 28? May 28 $28 −$25 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 27? May 28 $96 +$163 +171%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 27? May 27 $72 −$62 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $22 −$7 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 95% −$260
politics 5% +$300
other 0% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $17 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $17 5h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 41¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 41¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +24.7% +12.9% 56% 50% +35.0%
≤30d 100 -9.1% -17.7% 31% 28% +7.4%
≤90d 172 -9.9% -18.5% 30% 26% -7.8%
all 172 -9.9% -18.5% 30% 26% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover42.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 26% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 24% -16.7%
15% -33.4% 23% -24.7%
20% -39.9% 22% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.28 · official $253.30 (match) · 3106 history records