Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:59:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D5 0xd562…ec23 sports 646 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL −$744 (-2%) realized −$748 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate93%426W / 34L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$462now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$238
7 days+$450
14 days−$8
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 34% −$445
other 26% +$24
world 18% +$36
crypto 12% +$39
sports 9% +$443
politics 1% −$8
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 195 +33.2% +20.5% 96% 78% +4.3%
≤30d 445 +44.4% +30.7% 94% 76% -9.7%
≤90d 460 +43.0% +29.4% 93% 75% -9.5%
all 460 +43.0% +29.4% 93% 75% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.4% 75% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here +17.0% 54% -18.1%
15% +5.7% 37% -26.1%
20% -4.6% 22% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +52% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$44 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$462
Realized−$748
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses426 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions12
Markets (closed)460 / 646
History coverage45d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $78 $80 +$2 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 82¢ $58 $63 +$5 (+9%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Algeria 84¢ 84¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 68¢ 64¢ $56 $53 −$3 (-5%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 70¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+5%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 38¢ 26¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-32%)
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? No 44¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 22 $14 +$5 +36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 22 $15 +$6 +37%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 22 $3 $0 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AN Jun 22 $15 +$8 +52%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) AND Uruguay Jun 22 $0 $0 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $0 $0 +27%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AN Jun 21 $0 $0 +49%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $0 $0 +74%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $0 $0 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 21 $0 $0 +84%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi Jun 21 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $15 +$8 +54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi Jun 21 $15 +$6 +38%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AN Jun 21 $0 $0 +56%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $15 +$2 +15%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $0 $0 +50%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$21 +143%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $55 +$7 +13%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 AND Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 AND Sp Jun 21 $0 $0 +4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $0 $0 +20%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: U Jun 21 $15 +$2 +10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $53 +$27 +51%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $0 $0 +10%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Bel Jun 21 $15 +$5 +32%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $0 $0 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 21 $0 $0 +52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi Jun 21 $15 +$8 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $15 +$8 +54%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 21 $0 $0 +37%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 21 $15 +$7 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15 +$27 +180%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A Jun 21 $7 +$2 +27%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi Jun 21 $15 +$6 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $0 $0 +67%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND W Jun 21 $15 +$19 +124%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wil Jun 21 $15 +$11 +75%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will E Jun 21 $15 +$4 +24%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) AND Will Brazi Jun 21 $15 +$8 +51%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 +$35 +115%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $54 +$29 +53%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026- Jun 20 $0 $0 +26%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 +$1 +5%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Tuni Jun 20 $15 +$2 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? AND Jun 20 $30 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will BUY 77¢ $0 24m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 63¢ $15 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $26 3h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Fr BUY 77¢ $0 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 71¢ $15 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AN BUY 68¢ $15 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $31 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AN BUY 67¢ $0 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 41¢ $15 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $31 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 68¢ $0 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: U BUY 91¢ $15 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 68¢ $15 15h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 64¢ $0 16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 73¢ $0 18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $26 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 73¢ $0 19h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 71¢ $15 19h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-2 BUY 76¢ $4 20h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 84¢ $0 20h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocc BUY 88¢ $15 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 84¢ $15 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $27 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 76¢ $15 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND W BUY 74¢ $15 24h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 86¢ $0 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 67¢ $0 28h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will E BUY 80¢ $15 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $461.78 · official $1,511.16 · 2000 history records