Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D5 0xd561…9423 sports 809 markets active 1h ago coverage 581d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Covers last 581d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,227 (-2%) realized −$5,591 · open +$364
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%462W / 328L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$349est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$4,096now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$954
7 days+$502
14 days−$1,408
30 days−$3,025
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$5,549
other 13% +$2,386
crypto 6% −$1,424
politics 5% −$1,171
tech 2% −$355
world 2% +$456
culture 1% −$549
finance 0% +$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +46.3% +32.4% 64% 55% +3.5%
≤30d 84 -17.3% -25.2% 48% 45% -21.8%
≤90d 127 -15.6% -23.6% 48% 44% -22.4%
all 790 -5.4% -14.4% 58% 52% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 52% -11.9%
10% -22.6% 44% -20.3%
15% -30.1% 38% -28.0%
20% -36.9% 27% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$216 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

581d coverage
Net worth$4,096
Realized−$5,591
Unrealized+$364
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses462 / 328
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$349
Open positions19
Markets (closed)790 / 809
History coverage581d ⚠
Avg bet$297
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 790 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $1,146 $1,185 +$39 (+3%)
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? No 60¢ 83¢ $782 $1,090 +$308 (+39%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 60¢ 80¢ $360 $483 +$123 (+34%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $238 $240 +$2 (+1%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 78¢ 52¢ $331 $222 −$109 (-33%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $207 $208 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $189 $190 +$2 (+1%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $133 $140 +$6 (+5%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 96¢ $87 $96 +$9 (+10%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $77 $91 +$14 (+19%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 55¢ 55¢ $55 $55 −$1 (-1%)
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 Yes 74¢ 46¢ $65 $40 −$25 (-38%)
Human moon landing in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $21 $13 −$8 (-37%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+10%)
Will Team Falcons win an S tier event in 2026? No 47¢ 26¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-45%)
Will the IEM Cologne Major 2026 Grand Final be a sweep? Yes 11¢ 30¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+168%)
Will BP be acquired before 2027? No 71¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $49 +$344 +702%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 21 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $103 −$102 -100%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $536 +$64 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $95 +$105 +110%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $55 −$54 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,914 +$586 +31%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $409 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $101 +$43 +43%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $97 −$95 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $245 −$245 -100%
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $18 +$2 +11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $403 +$104 +26%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $108 +$92 +85%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 13 $15 +$16 +111%
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $42 −$41 -97%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $289 −$285 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $710 +$249 +35%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $363 −$333 -92%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $299 +$201 +67%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $173 +$127 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $732 +$278 +38%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $68 +$42 +61%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $6 +$4 +57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $723 +$197 +27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,410 −$1,398 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $557 −$550 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $747 −$289 -39%
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 11 $84 −$84 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $47 +$53 +113%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $103 −$102 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $117 −$116 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $129 −$128 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $53 −$25 -47%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $97 +$103 +105%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $263 +$97 +37%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $107 +$93 +86%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $442 +$158 +36%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $4 +$4 +79%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $299 +$201 +67%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-3.5) vs M80 (+3.5) Jun 08 $254 −$250 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $101 +$74 +73%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 08 $93 −$81 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the IEM Cologne Major 2026 Grand Final be a sweep? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 51m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 77¢ $3 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 77¢ $96 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 79¢ $233 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $364 1h
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 BUY Yes 74¢ $65 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $209 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $393 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 53¢ $52 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $103 17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,009 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $191 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $240 36h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $95 42h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $55 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $536 43h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $1,914 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 27¢ $409 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $101 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 19¢ $97 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $243 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 79¢ $403 7d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $108 8d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $9 8d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $6 8d
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 57¢ $289 8d
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $14 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 74¢ $60 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,095.87 · official $4,095.95 (match) · 3500 history records