Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:20:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd55f…ba37 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate27%9W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$5
politics 15% $0
other 15% −$4
culture 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.7% -12.9% 12% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 14 -2.3% -11.6% 14% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 18 -3.4% -12.6% 22% 0% -10.3%
all 33 -1.2% -10.6% 27% 3% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 3% -10.4%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses9 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage303d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $77 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $34 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 -24%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $37 −$2 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 25 $38 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $36 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $28 +$2 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $1 $0 -29%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 25 $7 +$1 +9%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 23 $37 −$4 -12%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 25 $38 +$1 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 23 $4 $0 +4%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Aug 22 $5 $0 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $36 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 16h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 18h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 18h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $20 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $10 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $2 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $8 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $33 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $15 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $3 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $13 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $35 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $37 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $30 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records