Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:12:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D5 0xd55d…7484 crypto 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$156 (-4%) realized −$146 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%33W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$44
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$121
other 6% −$46
economics 0% −$2
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -69.1% -72.1% 25% 25% -64.2%
≤90d 13 +8.1% -2.2% 54% 54% -12.8%
all 76 -4.0% -13.1% 43% 41% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 41% -13.1%
10% -21.4% 39% -21.4%
15% -29.0% 29% -29.0%
20% -36.0% 28% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$44 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$146
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses33 / 43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage534d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? No 46¢ 36¢ $46 $36 −$10 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 19 $58 −$57 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $57 +$13 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 30 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? May 19 $57 −$54 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? May 16 $42 +$38 +90%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10? May 11 $60 +$20 +33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3? Apr 30 $61 −$59 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $61 +$19 +32%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 13-19? Apr 20 $52 +$18 +35%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $76 −$43 -56%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $64 +$15 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 23-29? Mar 30 $30 +$129 +425%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 March 16-22? Mar 23 $63 +$16 +26%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 22-28? Mar 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 December 1-7? Mar 23 $72 −$72 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Mar 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 15-21? Mar 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 26-1? Mar 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 16-22? Mar 23 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8? Mar 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 September 22-28? Mar 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 2-8? Mar 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 7? Mar 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4? Mar 23 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 12-18? Mar 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 November 17-23? Mar 23 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $126,000 on October 9? Mar 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 11? Mar 16 $66 +$19 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $53 +$77 +144%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 10? Feb 16 $49 +$31 +64%
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 5-11? Jan 12 $68 +$112 +163%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 12? Dec 13 $58 +$22 +37%
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 24-30? Dec 01 $52 +$38 +72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 11? Nov 14 $27 +$133 +488%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 7? Nov 06 $69 −$8 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 29? Nov 01 $68 +$82 +122%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 21? Oct 25 $75 +$105 +141%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 15? Oct 20 $71 +$4 +5%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 08 $8 −$2 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on September 16? Sep 22 $66 +$14 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on September 13? Sep 14 $56 +$64 +113%
Bitcoin above $120000 on August 15? Sep 02 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin above $115,000 on August 8? Sep 02 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin above $114K on August 22? Aug 24 $70 +$100 +144%
Solana above $180 on July 25? Jul 26 $22 +$68 +317%
Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 18? Jul 20 $80 +$150 +186%
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 4–11? Jul 14 $67 +$43 +64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on July 1? Jul 05 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 27? Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY No 46¢ $48 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $58 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 80¢ $52 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? BUY No 76¢ $54 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? BUY Yes 32¢ $57 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $42 43d
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10? BUY No 75¢ $60 51d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3? BUY Yes 35¢ $28 57d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3? BUY Yes 35¢ $33 57d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 20-26? BUY No 76¢ $61 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 13-19? BUY Yes 74¢ $52 73d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 April 6-12? BUY No 60¢ $6 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 April 6-12? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 April 6-12? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 April 6-12? SELL No 59¢ $30 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 April 6-12? BUY No 60¢ $45 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 April 6-12? BUY No 60¢ $18 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 April 6-12? BUY No 60¢ $3 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5? BUY No 80¢ $64 85d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 23-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 93d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 23-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 93d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 March 16-22? BUY No 79¢ $63 97d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 11? SELL Yes 48¢ $13 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 11? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 107d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8? BUY Yes 30¢ $27 114d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 114d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 February 23-March 1? BUY Yes 41¢ $53 121d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 16-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $56 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.50 · official $36.50 (match) · 199 history records