Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:04:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd558…8459 world 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$75 (-1%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate30%19W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$9
14 days−$10
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% $0
world 26% −$6
other 23% +$5
sports 21% −$69
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.1% -10.5% 22% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 24 +6.6% -3.5% 33% 8% -9.7%
≤90d 31 +4.9% -5.1% 29% 6% -9.6%
all 63 +2.1% -7.6% 30% 5% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 5% -10.5%
10% -16.4% 3% -19.1%
15% -24.5% 2% -26.9%
20% -31.9% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses19 / 44
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)63 / 66
History coverage324d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 22¢ 88¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+298%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 87¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $88 −$5 -6%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $85 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $176 −$7 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $175 +$3 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $104 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $127 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $114 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $90 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $78 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $91 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $5 $0 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $91 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $99 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $66 +$6 +10%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $6 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $390 +$1 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $651 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $50 −$4 -8%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $611 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $645 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $586 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $236 $0 +0%
Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5) Mar 15 $77 $0 +0%
Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $139 −$69 -50%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 15 $20 $0 +1%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 14 $140 −$2 -1%
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5 Mar 13 $139 +$1 +1%
Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 13 $139 $0 +0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 11 $73 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Aug 01 $65 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 01 $64 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 01 $71 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 01 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $32 $0 -0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 31 $43 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 31 $6 $0 -1%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $31 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 31 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 49¢ $83 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $85 34h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 40h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 42h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 42h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 46h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 80¢ $26 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $27 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $27 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $86 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $37 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $48 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $86 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $19 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $67 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $84 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $64 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $20 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $6 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $78 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $31 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $57 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.20 · official $0.00 · 251 history records