Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:42:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd557…8132
crypto · 34 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$239 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$238 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$98
Realized−$238
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses10 / 17
Open positions7
Markets (closed)27 / 34
History coverage147d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 7 History 27 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 5? Up 2¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 6? Down 9¢ 0¢ $134 $0 −$134 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 8? Down 9¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 10 $20 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 10 $20 +$10 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 10 $24 −$16 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 09 $20 +$12 +62%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? Feb 09 $9 −$7 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 09 $20 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 9? Feb 09 $40 −$18 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 09 $20 +$20 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 8? Feb 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 7? Feb 07 $350 +$77 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 06 $20 −$18 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 6? Feb 06 $378 −$120 -32%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 05 $40 +$21 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 5? Feb 05 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 27 $36 −$24 -66%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jan 25 $50 +$18 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 78% −$236
other 12% −$14
economics 10% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $16 20h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 37h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $17 40h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $51 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 16d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 16d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 16d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 16d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 16d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $20 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $50 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $20 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $35 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $20 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $30 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $20 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $20 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $9 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $4 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $20 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $20 123d
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $20 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $20 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 9? SELL Up 18¢ $22 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-41.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -28.1% -35.0% 67% 33% -26.3%
≤30d 3 -28.1% -35.0% 67% 33% -26.3%
≤90d 3 -28.1% -35.0% 67% 33% -26.3%
all 27 -35.0% -41.2% 37% 33% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.2% 33% -29.7%
10% -46.8% 26% -36.4%
15% -52.0% 26% -42.6%
20% -56.7% 22% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.36 · official $98.36 (match) · 110 history records