Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:09:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd555…e28a
finance · 331 markets active 4h ago
4.0score
+$25,479 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$23,348 · open +$1,210
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$33,801
Realized+$23,348
Unrealized+$1,210
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses188 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions67
Markets (closed)270 / 331
History coverage99d
Avg bet$594
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 67 History 270 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10,660
7 days+$10,943
14 days+$11,320
30 days+$12,599
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $6,166 $6,225 +$59 (+1%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 88¢ 95¢ $4,185 $4,520 +$334 (+8%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $4,427 $4,416 −$12 (-0%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 71¢ 79¢ $2,205 $2,439 +$234 (+11%)
Will Jeff Bezos buy the Seattle Seahawks? No 81¢ 94¢ $1,880 $2,175 +$295 (+16%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $1,913 $2,121 +$208 (+11%)
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,272 $1,284 +$12 (+1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,097 $1,101 +$3 (+0%)
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30? Anthropic + OpenAI 94¢ 97¢ $949 $980 +$31 (+3%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by June 30? No 78¢ 90¢ $836 $955 +$119 (+14%)
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 88¢ 93¢ $769 $813 +$44 (+6%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $647 $666 +$19 (+3%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $185B by June 30? No 90¢ 94¢ $626 $657 +$31 (+5%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $544 $545 +$0 (+0%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $517 $533 +$15 (+3%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $506 $508 +$2 (+0%)
Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31? No 82¢ 80¢ $412 $402 −$9 (-2%)
Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $355 $352 −$2 (-1%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $313 $325 +$12 (+4%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $192 $196 +$4 (+2%)
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.55B? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $194 $194 −$0 (-0%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $168 $169 +$1 (+1%)
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $10B by June 30? No 90¢ 94¢ $159 $165 +$7 (+4%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $147 $148 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $145 $145 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $2,627 −$86 -3%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $1,925 +$19 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $597 +$3 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $4,381 +$6,404 +146%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $3,887 +$48 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $1,762 +$27 +2%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $1,030 +$13 +1%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $1,176 +$43 +4%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $4,616 +$78 +2%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1,287 +$43 +3%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $285 +$15 +5%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1,532 +$61 +4%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $942 +$18 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $10,969 +$2,694 +25%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $38 −$28 -74%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3,039 +$37 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +4%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $116 +$14 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1,264 −$60 -5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $654 +$193 +30%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $2,094 +$62 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $1,176 +$5 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $642 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $7,641 +$1,040 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 11 $3,034 +$12 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 11 $780 +$2 +0%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $382 +$3 +1%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 10 $1,921 +$8 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 10 $822 +$28 +3%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $520 +$110 +21%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 07 $5,134 +$56 +1%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1,626 +$77 +5%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $378 +$2 +0%
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $46 +$1 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 06 $307 +$43 +14%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $13B and $16B at market close Jun 05 $229 +$236 +103%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $16B and $19B at market close Jun 05 $172 −$99 -58%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $22B and $25B at market close Jun 05 $69 +$1 +2%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d Jun 05 $1,254 +$18 +1%
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $4 $0 +5%
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.90 and $3.20 on June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $261 +$9 +4%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $10B and $13B at market close Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be less than $10B at market close on IPO Jun 05 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 90 by June 30? Jun 04 $49 $0 +1%
Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as th Jun 04 $124 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 04 $699 +$26 +4%
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $320 +$13 +4%
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by June 30? Jun 03 $4 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 37% +$12,282
finance 27% −$1,140
other 22% +$1,688
politics 8% +$392
culture 3% +$4,084
sports 1% +$110
economics 1% +$7,106
world 1% +$37
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $70 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $226 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $87 5h
Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30? BUY Yes 98¢ $355 5h
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL No 95¢ $734 6h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $1,099 7h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $899 7h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 7h
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $10B by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $159 7h
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $14 7h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $5,697 7h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $3,070 7h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 46¢ $8 8h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 46¢ $1 8h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $70 8h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $63 8h
Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $476 10h
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? BUY No 99¢ $1,272 10h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 100¢ $1,998 10h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 5¢ $10 12h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less BUY No 99¢ $198 12h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less BUY No 99¢ $496 13h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 96¢ $33 13h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 96¢ $96 13h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 96¢ $96 13h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 96¢ $96 13h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 96¢ $96 13h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 96¢ $91 13h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 96¢ $67 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +3.4% -6.5% 89% 17% +5.0%
≤30d 106 +6.0% -4.1% 81% 25% +3.1%
≤90d 262 +6.5% -3.7% 69% 24% +4.3%
all 270 +7.9% -2.4% 70% 24% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.4% 24% +4.5%
10% -11.8% 15% -5.5%
15% ← realistic here -20.3% 11% -14.6%
20% -28.1% 10% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,800.69 · official $33,800.73 (match) · 3500 history records