Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:28:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D5 0xd553…6af5 world 252 markets active 4h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,728 (+3%) realized +$5,235 · open −$507
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate55%134W / 111L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$606per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$7,321now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,211
7 days−$1,624
14 days−$554
30 days−$2,215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$6,401
other 23% +$2,686
politics 14% −$5,193
sports 8% −$572
crypto 4% +$539
economics 3% +$1,293
tech 2% −$398
finance 1% +$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 14 -57.7% -61.7% 29% 29% -34.0%
≤90d 65 +7.6% -2.7% 58% 55% -3.7%
all 245 -2.9% -12.1% 55% 46% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 46% -6.1%
10% -20.5% 33% -15.1%
15% -28.2% 24% -23.3%
20% -35.2% 17% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$823) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$264 vs −$275 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$7,321
Realized+$5,235
Unrealized−$507
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses134 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions6
Markets (closed)245 / 252
History coverage251d
Avg bet$606
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $2,232 $2,299 +$66 (+3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 76¢ 81¢ $1,500 $1,608 +$108 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 49¢ 56¢ $1,000 $1,153 +$153 (+15%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $1,000 $996 −$4 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 29¢ 12¢ $1,696 $697 −$999 (-59%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 32¢ 46¢ $400 $569 +$169 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $44 −$42 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $284 −$280 -98%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $620 −$615 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $204 −$200 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $420 −$413 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $930 +$1,070 +115%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? Jun 02 $95 −$95 -100%
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30? Jun 02 $645 −$645 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30? Jun 02 $1,447 −$1,447 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,200 +$138 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,837 +$548 +30%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $223 −$221 -99%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? May 27 $176 +$61 +35%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? May 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? May 23 $58 −$49 -84%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? May 23 $197 −$10 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $516 −$81 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $250 +$90 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $252 +$182 +72%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 22 $198 +$220 +111%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $522 −$446 -86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $140 −$50 -36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $819 −$638 -78%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? May 22 $402 −$88 -22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 14 $565 −$489 -87%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? May 07 $206 +$46 +22%
Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31? May 02 $223 +$77 +35%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 02 $305 +$698 +229%
Will the DHS shutdown last 120 days or more? May 01 $897 +$172 +19%
Will the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more? May 01 $3,057 +$902 +30%
Will the DHS shutdown last 110 days or more? May 01 $1,372 +$480 +35%
Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more? Apr 30 $1,186 −$313 -26%
James Comey arrested by April 30? Apr 29 $101 +$399 +394%
James Comey arrested by April 29? Apr 29 $720 +$1,364 +190%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 26 $300 +$111 +37%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 26 $200 +$93 +46%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 26 $468 +$81 +17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 26 $900 +$100 +11%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $1,540 +$393 +26%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $2,509 +$550 +22%
Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more? Apr 21 $441 −$433 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $1,500 +$236 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $1,671 +$329 +20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 21 $897 +$175 +20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $200 −$8 -4%
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $952 +$145 +15%
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $500 +$66 +13%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 15 $1,380 +$323 +23%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 14 $1,760 +$206 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $44 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $253 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06- BUY 35¢ $204 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $100 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,000 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $300 27h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $506 27h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $1,012 27h
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $1,000 27h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 40¢ $102 28h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 53¢ $265 29h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 31¢ $102 29h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 51¢ $101 30h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 49¢ $102 30h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 52¢ $152 30h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 8¢ $58 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 32¢ $98 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 40¢ $122 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 41¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,321.31 · official $7,321.71 (match) · 1950 history records