Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:12:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd552…491f crypto 265 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-3%) realized −$33 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%112W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days−$8
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$52
other 10% +$21
sports 5% −$29
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.4% -10.8% 60% 56% -2.5%
≤30d 39 -18.7% -26.5% 46% 44% -27.7%
≤90d 258 -0.5% -9.9% 43% 38% -11.8%
all 263 -1.9% -11.3% 43% 38% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 38% -13.7%
10% -19.7% 33% -21.9%
15% -27.5% 30% -29.5%
20% -34.6% 27% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses112 / 151
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)263 / 265
History coverage123d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026? No 14¢ 13¢ $30 $27 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$2 +59%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$2 +96%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$2 +65%
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $9 +$18 +204%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4 +$1 +34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +50%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +220%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 -2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 $0 +46%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $13 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 22 $25 +$2 +9%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 22 $26 +$10 +38%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 22 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 22 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 22 $1 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 22 $1 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 22 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 22 $2 +$1 +47%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 22 $2 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.13 · official $27.13 (match) · 559 history records