Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:50:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5

score

D5 0xd552…799c other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2,223 (+48%) realized +$2,649 · open −$426

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +124% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +94% what you keep after slip

Net edge+94%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate53%9W / 8L

Drawdown10%max

Avg bet$203per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit9%portable

Net worth$1,784now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)+102.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+123.7%	+102.4%	53%	53%	+67.2%
≤30d	17	+123.7%	+102.4%	53%	53%	+67.2%
≤90d	17	+123.7%	+102.4%	53%	53%	+67.2%
all	17	+123.7%	+102.4%	53%	53%	+67.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+102.4%	53%	+67.2%
10%	+83.0%	53%	+51.2%
15%	+65.3%	47%	+36.6%
20%	+49.1%	41%	+23.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +85% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +124% · $-wt +85% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +109% → late +137% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$262 vs −$42 · ×6.25 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×7.03 per $1 lost it wins $7.03

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$1,784

Realized+$2,649

Unrealized−$426

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses9 / 8

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions6

Markets (closed)17 / 23

History coverage6d

Avg bet$203

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown10%

Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$500	$496	−$4 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	71¢	28¢	$1,100	$441	−$659 (-60%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	2¢	$230	$431	+$201 (+88%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$300	$293	−$7 (-2%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo?	Yes	10¢	24¢	$50	$122	+$72 (+145%)
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals	Yes	26¢	0¢	$30	$1	−$29 (-98%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$708	+$403	+57%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$51	+$504	+982%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals	Jun 17	$51	+$60	+119%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 17	$112	+$241	+216%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$604	+$146	+24%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway?	Jun 16	$51	−$50	-98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway?	Jun 16	$51	−$6	-11%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$149	+$67	+45%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$51	+$574	+1116%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Jesper Svensson win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?	Jun 14	$103	−$100	-97%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$211	+$276	+131%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Jun 12	$70	+$87	+124%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?	Jun 11	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?	Jun 11	$10	−$10	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	65¢	$505	49m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL No	35¢	$114	56m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	9¢	$31	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$604	4h
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	26¢	$31	4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	10¢	$51	4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$514	15h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$309	15h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	45¢	$51	17h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	24¢	$51	17h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	9¢	$51	17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$708	17h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	21¢	$51	19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	52¢	$61	20h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway?	BUY Yes	16¢	$51	21h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway?	SELL Yes	5¢	$46	21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$604	21h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway?	BUY Yes	5¢	$51	21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	0¢	$10	21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$110	21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$149	26h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	8¢	$51	26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	21¢	$102	40h
Will Jesper Svensson win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?	BUY Yes	5¢	$103	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Knicks	100¢	$405	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	86¢	$83	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Knicks	80¢	$82	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	29¢	$5	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	36¢	$71	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	25¢	$51	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,784.17 · official $1,790.48 (match) · 50 history records