Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D5 0xd550…0bfb sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$142 (-2%) realized −$137 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$511per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$765now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$251
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$182
crypto 37% −$52
other 1% +$80
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +13.4% +2.6% 75% 50% +0.6%
≤90d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 67% 33% -12.6%
all 11 -0.9% -10.3% 64% 27% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 27% -12.0%
10% -18.9% 27% -20.4%
15% -26.8% 27% -28.1%
20% -33.9% 18% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$386 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$765
Realized−$137
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage96d
Avg bet$511
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 77¢ 76¢ $770 $765 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $430 +$170 +40%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $74 +$80 +109%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $575 +$25 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 30 $139 −$139 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 17 $744 +$56 +8%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March? Apr 05 $813 +$7 +1%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 27 $945 −$945 -100%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 26 $528 +$672 +127%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 23 $40 $0 +1%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 22 $990 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $775 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $430 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $74 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 22d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 22d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 22d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $70 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $312 35d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $263 35d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 37¢ $64 57d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 37¢ $4 57d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 37¢ $6 57d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 93¢ $744 76d
Hawks vs. Celtics BUY Hawks 35¢ $945 86d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March? BUY No 99¢ $149 86d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March? BUY No 99¢ $539 87d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March? BUY No 99¢ $125 87d
Thunder vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 44¢ $528 88d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? SELL No 99¢ $40 90d
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones SELL Kentucky Wildcats 33¢ $990 91d
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones BUY Kentucky Wildcats 33¢ $990 91d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 98¢ $40 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $765.00 · official $765.00 (match) · 33 history records