Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:03:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd54e…7f96 crypto 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (312 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$531 (+7%) realized +$545 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%36W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day312.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (312 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -3.1% -12.3% 55% 52% -11.3%
≤30d 66 -3.1% -12.3% 55% 52% -11.3%
≤90d 66 -3.1% -12.3% 55% 52% -11.3%
all 66 -3.1% -12.3% 55% 52% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover312.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 52% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 45% -19.8%
15% -28.4% 36% -27.6%
20% -35.4% 33% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$84 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$545
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses36 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage1d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day312.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 63¢ 66¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 80¢ 34¢ $25 $11 −$14 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $185 −$176 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $104 −$64 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $129 −$100 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $611 −$600 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $334 +$201 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$87 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $155 +$117 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $206 +$152 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$56 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $125 +$53 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $205 +$59 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $279 +$75 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $182 +$201 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $206 −$100 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $156 −$125 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $108 −$105 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $181 +$123 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $155 −$94 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $156 +$178 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $155 +$120 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $181 −$175 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $108 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $229 +$48 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $140 +$97 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $93 −$53 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $108 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $83 −$50 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $98 −$95 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $177 +$117 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $155 −$100 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $170 +$127 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$27 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$9 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$35 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $41 +$43 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $62 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $113 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $67 +$71 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $88 +$15 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $99 −$24 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$26 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $40 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $24 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $103 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $160 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $100 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $264 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.62 · official $40.96 (match) · 347 history records