Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd54b…ded3 other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$78 (-3%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate42%24W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$23
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% $0
world 14% −$4
crypto 5% −$58
economics 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
politics 2% $0
sports 1% −$40
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.8% -12.9% 12% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 31 -14.0% -22.2% 32% 16% -15.4%
≤90d 57 -13.5% -21.7% 42% 18% -12.9%
all 57 -13.5% -21.7% 42% 18% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 18% -12.9%
10% -29.2% 11% -21.3%
15% -36.0% 5% -28.9%
20% -42.3% 2% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses24 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage75d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $58 −$1 -2%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? Jun 16 $54 $0 -0%
NATO dissolves before 2027? Jun 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Jun 15 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $35 −$9 -25%
EU dissolves before 2027? Jun 15 $85 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $30 −$13 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +38%
Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire May 28 $30 −$30 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx May 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 27 $42 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 25 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 25 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 25 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 25 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 25 $7 −$7 -96%
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? May 22 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $69 +$1 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $59 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 21 $65 −$1 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $67 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $130 −$6 -4%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? May 20 $52 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $77 −$2 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $42 +$6 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4? May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $123 +$2 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 15 $118 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $61 +$4 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $59 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $112 +$7 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 13 $55 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 13 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 13 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 12 $54 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $57 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $54 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $131 −$25 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 07 $157 +$52 +33%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $10 +$7 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $44 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $65 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 96¢ $57 1h
Epstein client list released by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $49 1h
Epstein client list released by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $49 15h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $58 16h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $56 24h
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? SELL No 96¢ $53 24h
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? BUY No 97¢ $45 37h
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? BUY No 97¢ $8 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $56 37h
NATO dissolves before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $48 37h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 89¢ $62 37h
NATO dissolves before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $48 2d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $63 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $26 2d
EU dissolves before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $85 2d
EU dissolves before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $85 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $35 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $17 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $30 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 13d
Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire BUY Connecticut Sun 37¢ $30 20d
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Atlanta Dream 4¢ $10 20d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $42 20d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $42 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $13 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.27 · official $109.27 (match) · 151 history records