Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd548…f5ef world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%15W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$5
other 33% −$3
tech 3% $0
politics 2% −$1
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 20 -0.5% -10.0% 30% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 20 -0.5% -10.0% 30% 0% -10.2%
all 43 -1.3% -10.7% 35% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -10.3%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage477d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $36 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $3 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $42 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $16 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $112 −$2 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $58 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $15 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $25 −$1 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $39 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $31 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $42 −$2 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $43 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $11 −$1 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on June 3? Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 18 $1 $0 +3%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? May 18 $6 −$2 -43%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ipswich Town be relegated? Apr 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? Apr 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 190-199 times April 4 - 11? Apr 13 $15 $0 +3%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Apr 03 $13 $0 -3%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 29 $2 $0 -3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Mar 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Doc Rivers make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 22 $16 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $6 3h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $29 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $24 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $23 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $38 32h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $38 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $37 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $14 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $22 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $36 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $36 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $20 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $17 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $28 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.40 · official $1.73 (match) · 158 history records