Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:43:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd546…657b
crypto · 135 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5,376 -55%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,192 · open −$189
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$390
Realized−$5,192
Unrealized−$189
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses22 / 107
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions6
Markets (closed)129 / 135
History coverage5d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day53.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 6 History 129 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$746
7 days−$5,192
14 days−$5,192
30 days−$5,192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran Thiago Cigarran 10¢ 20¢ $83 $169 +$86 (+103%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $330 $124 −$206 (-62%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 7¢ 6¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 45¢ 50¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet Tristan Schoolkate 10¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $210 $0 −$210 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 10¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Keegan Smith 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 $0 -3%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $20 +$4 +21%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur Jun 12 $10 −$4 -39%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 12 $25 +$8 +34%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $20 −$10 -49%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $60 −$59 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $36 −$34 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $25 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$7 +79%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Arklon Del Pino Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 −$24 -97%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $10 +$30 +291%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $418 −$418 -100%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $103 −$7 -6%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 10 $51 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$1 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -94%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -97%
Tucuman: Maximo Zeitune vs Arklon Del Pino Jun 10 $10 +$11 +112%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $27 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $51 +$47 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$91 +852%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $37 −$35 -94%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $16 −$15 -94%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Northern Ireland? Jun 08 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 08 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $53 +$8 +14%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 60% −$3,674
sports 24% −$772
other 7% −$206
world 5% −$525
politics 4% −$206
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran BUY Thiago Cigarran 12¢ $3 21m
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran BUY Thiago Cigarran 11¢ $31 24m
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran BUY Thiago Cigarran 9¢ $51 30m
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Tristan Schoolkate 8¢ $15 57m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $15 57m
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Tristan Schoolkate 10¢ $8 58m
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz SELL Mattia Bellucci 29¢ $8 58m
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Tristan Schoolkate 7¢ $6 1h
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur SELL Clement Tabur 23¢ $6 1h
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Tristan Schoolkate 6¢ $13 1h
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 36¢ $10 1h
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Tristan Schoolkate 28¢ $26 1h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 34¢ $10 1h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 69¢ $16 1h
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi SELL Carlos Maria Zarate 39¢ $33 1h
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Keegan Smith 7¢ $10 1h
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley SELL Jacob Fearnley 97¢ $20 1h
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 28¢ $25 1h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 27¢ $50 2h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 22¢ $10 2h
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 49¢ $10 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 45¢ $10 2h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 42¢ $10 2h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 6¢ $21 15h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 10¢ $31 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 17h
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 10¢ $21 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-57.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 -53.2% -57.6% 17% 15% -65.3%
≤30d 129 -53.2% -57.6% 17% 15% -65.3%
≤90d 129 -53.2% -57.6% 17% 15% -65.3%
all 129 -53.2% -57.6% 17% 15% -65.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover53.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.6% 15% -65.3%
10% ← realistic here -61.7% 12% -68.6%
15% -65.4% 10% -71.6%
20% -68.8% 9% -74.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $389.52 · official $389.52 (match) · 303 history records