Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:16:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D5 0xd544…4d5e other 163 markets active 2h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$15,775 (+9%) realized +$16,011 · open −$236
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate42%67W / 93L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$1,102per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$186
30 days+$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$10,080
culture 28% +$13,132
other 24% +$14,041
world 3% −$2,596
politics 3% −$2,293
crypto 1% −$1,145
finance 0% +$617
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +179.9% +153.2% 100% 100% +153.2%
≤90d 14 -10.3% -18.9% 43% 36% -33.3%
all 160 +0.6% -8.9% 42% 31% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 31% -0.7%
10% -17.7% 23% -10.2%
15% -25.6% 19% -18.9%
20% -32.9% 18% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$711 vs −$384 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$16,011
Unrealized−$236
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses67 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions3
Markets (closed)160 / 163
History coverage457d
Avg bet$1,102
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 31¢ 9¢ $318 $92 −$226 (-71%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Atlanta Braves 67¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Chicago White Sox 79¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-47%)
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Jun 15 $103 +$186 +180%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $156 +$396 +253%
Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $258 −$250 -97%
UFC 327: Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Early Prelims Apr 11 $8 $0 +6%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $400 −$391 -98%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 08 $500 +$303 +61%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 08 $3,000 −$2,467 -82%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $250 −$243 -97%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $500 +$617 +123%
Will Jamaica win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? Mar 31 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $2,500 +$350 +14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-03-30? Mar 31 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $429 −$429 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweigh Mar 21 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Mar 17 $10 −$5 -54%
Will I Lied to You - Sinners win Best Original Song at the 98th Academ Mar 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $12,000 +$16 +0%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Acad Mar 16 $5,000 +$2,037 +41%
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Mar 16 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98t Mar 16 $2,000 +$224 +11%
Will Sinners win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $311 −$311 -100%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $2,000 +$105 +5%
Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at t Mar 16 $1,200 −$1,015 -85%
Will Sinners win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $4,000 +$5,936 +148%
Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 15 $5,000 +$2,773 +56%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $1,750 −$250 -14%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $2,000 +$201 +10%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $3,000 −$2,248 -75%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-02-16? Mar 01 $1,000 +$4,419 +442%
Sabres vs. Panthers Mar 01 $2,501 +$827 +33%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-23? Mar 01 $396 −$394 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $362 −$186 -51%
Sabres vs. Panthers: O/U 4.5 Feb 28 $234 −$234 -100%
Girona FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Feb 16 $1,500 +$36 +2%
Zuffa Boxing 3: Ruiz vs. Streeter (Catchweight, Main) Feb 16 $169 −$169 -100%
Will Keshad Johnson win the 2026 NBA dunk contest? Feb 16 $1,000 +$347 +35%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-17? Feb 14 $5 +$10 +191%
Zuffa Boxing 1: Diaz vs. Gutierrez (Bantamweight, Prelims) Feb 14 $2 $0 +1%
Zuffa Boxing 1: Troy vs. Ramos (Lightweight, Prelims) Feb 14 $32 −$30 -93%
Villarreal CF vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 Feb 14 $103 −$98 -95%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? Feb 14 $197 +$63 +32%
Will Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Feb 14 $4,732 −$200 -4%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $1,210 −$710 -59%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 09 $250 +$66 +26%
Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 09 $500 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $325 1h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 79¢ $1 8d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 67¢ $1 8d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 37d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $103 37d
Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? SELL Yes 100¢ $553 41d
Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY No 33¢ $258 41d
Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 27¢ $155 42d
Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 42d
UFC 327: Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Early Prelims BUY MarQuel Mederos 47¢ $8 72d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? BUY Yes 25¢ $400 74d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $803 76d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $533 76d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $3,000 76d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 9¢ $250 76d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $946 76d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $49 76d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $100 76d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 76d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 76d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $18 76d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $500 77d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $500 77d
Will Jamaica win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 83d
Will Jamaica win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 83d
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? BUY Yes 49¢ $500 84d
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? SELL Yes 96¢ $2,850 84d
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 84¢ $2,500 84d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-03-30? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 84d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-03-30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.02 · official $112.28 · 437 history records