Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:16:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd543…aa14 other 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$76 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%9W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$24
politics 17% −$6
sports 8% −$47
economics 5% −$1
world 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.0% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 94 -6.5% -15.4% 10% 5% -9.9%
all 94 -6.5% -15.4% 10% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 5% -9.9%
10% -23.5% 5% -18.5%
15% -30.9% 4% -26.4%
20% -37.6% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$76
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses9 / 85
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage93d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $114 $113 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $212 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $281 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $394 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 05 $51 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 05 $73 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $392 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $55 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $33 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $420 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $210 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $192 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $189 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $193 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $183 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $383 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 04 $187 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $185 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $371 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $191 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $186 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 19 $184 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $193 $0 +0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $187 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $186 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $418 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $470 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $377 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $191 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $418 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $198 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $202 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 11 $184 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 11 $183 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $444 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $334 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $348 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Garcia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $187 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 10 $206 $0 -0%
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $224 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $362 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 2h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 5d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $114 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 14d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 22d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 22d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $30 22d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $30 22d
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? BUY No 99¢ $51 22d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $26 23d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $26 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 24d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $73 26d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $33 27d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $33 27d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $39 28d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $39 28d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 30d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 30d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 30d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 30d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $196 33d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $196 33d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $193 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.26 · official $113.26 (match) · 262 history records