Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd542…08ab crypto 395 markets active 15h ago coverage 562d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,369 (-10%) realized −$2,369 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate45%179W / 215L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$404
14 days+$350
30 days−$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$1,109
sports 42% −$1,973
other 10% +$597
politics 3% −$36
economics 2% $0
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -14.0% -22.2% 31% 17% +5.6%
≤30d 301 -17.4% -25.2% 41% 23% -11.4%
≤90d 342 -16.7% -24.6% 44% 26% -19.8%
all 394 -17.3% -25.1% 45% 28% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 28% -19.3%
10% -32.3% 21% -27.0%
15% -38.9% 16% -34.1%
20% -44.8% 11% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$31 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

562d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,369
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses179 / 215
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)394 / 395
History coverage562d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 394 Trades
no open positions (92 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$6 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $45 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$18 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $35 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $121 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $35 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $105 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $25 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $38 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $22 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $25 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $11 +$10 +83%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $12 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $41 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$20 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $41 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $35 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May? Jun 10 $1,005 +$535 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $35 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $35 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $36 −$7 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $26 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 14h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 14h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 14h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 14h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY 2¢ $5 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1688 history records