Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D5 0xd541…5257 crypto 302 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+1%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%297W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$5
14 days+$17
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$3
finance 6% +$5
other 6% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +0.3% -9.2% 98% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 166 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 1% -9.2%
≤90d 302 +0.5% -9.0% 98% 1% -9.3%
all 302 +0.5% -9.0% 98% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 1% -9.3%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$21 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses297 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)302 / 302
History coverage66d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 302 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $49 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 38m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $14 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $28 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 26h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 35h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1758 history records