Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:27:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd540…7a9c politics 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$122 (-22%) realized −$125 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate16%8W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$5
crypto 23% −$71
other 20% −$23
world 18% −$18
sports 4% −$18
tech 4% −$1
weather 2% −$1
finance 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -29.5% -36.2% 57% 14% -35.3%
≤90d 49 -13.6% -21.9% 16% 6% -31.9%
all 49 -13.6% -21.9% 16% 6% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 6% -31.9%
10% -29.3% 2% -38.4%
15% -36.2% 0% -44.4%
20% -42.4% 0% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$125
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses8 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage59d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes $25 $11 −$14 (-55%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 21¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+46%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 22 $10 $0 +4%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 22? May 22 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 22 $15 −$6 -39%
Will Candace Owens or Hunter Biden say "Cash" on Thursday? May 22 $5 $0 +1%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Scotland vs USA May 20 $15 −$13 -89%
Will Bangladesh win? May 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $10 $0 -2%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 13 $10 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 13 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 14? May 13 $5 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14? May 13 $5 $0 -8%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $25 −$2 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 13 $5 −$2 -30%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $5 $0 -10%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $10 $0 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 12 $5 −$3 -55%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 10 $5 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $5 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 10 $5 $0 -4%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $5 $0 -7%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $5 $0 -0%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House May 10 $5 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 10 $5 $0 -4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 10 $5 −$1 -12%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De May 10 $5 $0 -0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Madison Keys vs Nikola Bartunkova May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 10 $5 $0 -7%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 10 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 10 $5 −$1 -13%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 10 $5 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 10 $5 $0 -5%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 10 $15 −$6 -41%
Will Trump post "Ceasefire" or "Cease-fire" or "Cease fire" on Truth S May 10 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 16 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 16 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 16 $17 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 16 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 16 $77 −$77 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $0 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.41 · official $20.18 (match) · 239 history records