Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:42:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd53f…7c32 crypto 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%85W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$117
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +4.4% -5.5% 58% 55% -10.1%
≤30d 31 +4.4% -5.5% 58% 55% -10.1%
≤90d 192 -16.2% -24.1% 44% 44% -13.5%
all 192 -16.2% -24.1% 44% 44% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 44% -13.5%
10% -31.4% 38% -21.8%
15% -38.0% 33% -29.3%
20% -44.1% 28% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses85 / 107
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)192 / 192
History coverage80d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 192 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$20 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $58 +$24 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $56 +$58 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $35 +$20 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$48 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$10 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $17 +$16 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$80 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $69 −$17 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$7 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$19 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $9 +$7 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $18 +$6 +33%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 30 $6 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 23 $16 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 23 $27 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 23 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 23 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 23 $6 +$5 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 23 $25 +$25 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $41 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $82 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $51 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $8 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $114 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 632 history records