Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd53e…0b73 world 305 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,749 (-1%) realized −$1,814 · open +$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate52%121W / 112L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$394per market
Trades / day41.3pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$6,680now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,060
7 days+$612
14 days+$86
30 days−$592
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% −$3,210
crypto 5% +$717
other 5% −$150
sports 4% +$686
politics 4% −$129
finance 1% −$91
tech 0% +$15
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -0.7% -10.1% 60% 32% -8.0%
≤30d 111 -6.7% -15.6% 57% 28% -10.4%
≤90d 233 -12.8% -21.1% 52% 26% -11.2%
all 233 -12.8% -21.1% 52% 26% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.1% 26% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 14% -19.7%
15% -35.5% 9% -27.5%
20% -41.9% 6% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$80 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$6,680
Realized−$1,814
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses121 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions72
Markets (closed)233 / 305
History coverage74d
Avg bet$394
Trades / day41.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 72 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $715 $728 +$14 (+2%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $636 $674 +$38 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 76¢ 80¢ $394 $420 +$26 (+7%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 87¢ 92¢ $375 $399 +$24 (+6%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 87¢ 88¢ $347 $347 +$1 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $299 $307 +$8 (+3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $261 $289 +$27 (+10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $279 $250 −$30 (-11%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 95¢ 95¢ $224 $224 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $212 $213 +$1 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $211 $189 −$22 (-11%)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $168 $177 +$9 (+6%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $172 $174 +$2 (+1%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 82¢ 99¢ $126 $152 +$27 (+21%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 66¢ 56¢ $157 $135 −$22 (-14%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $128 $135 +$8 (+6%)
NATO dissolves before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $122 $123 +$1 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $102 $112 +$10 (+10%)
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $91 $93 +$1 (+1%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+2%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 31¢ 50¢ $49 $78 +$29 (+60%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $72 $75 +$3 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $71 $74 +$2 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon register any party before 2027? No 83¢ 94¢ $58 $66 +$8 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $186 +$60 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2,554 +$124 +5%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 18 $79 +$8 +10%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $65 +$46 +70%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $217 −$12 -6%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $71 +$12 +17%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $73 +$7 +10%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $390 −$38 -10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $67 +$26 +38%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 17 $45 −$22 -49%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$2 +21%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $40 −$17 -42%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 17 $16,704 +$553 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $17 +$9 +52%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $38 −$2 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 +$14 +55%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 16 $39 +$2 +6%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $69 +$4 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $3,999 +$287 +7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $14 +$26 +188%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $18 +$21 +119%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Jun 15 $13 +$1 +5%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $481 +$78 +16%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 15 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $38 +$2 +4%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $129 +$10 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $410 +$316 +77%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $44 +$9 +21%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $885 −$276 -31%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $195 +$26 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $600 −$334 -56%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $392 +$66 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $23 −$23 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $283 −$89 -32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $173 +$61 +35%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $59 +$5 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $81 +$19 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $360 −$122 -34%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $2,758 +$81 +3%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $78 +$4 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $552 −$149 -27%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 13 $655 −$44 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $180 −$26 -14%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 13 $41 +$4 +9%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $184 +$12 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 70¢ $36 6m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 70¢ $11 7m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 68¢ $13 11m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 67¢ $20 15m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 67¢ $14 19m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $74 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $61 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $40 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 88¢ $66 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $29 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $16 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $109 2h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $12 2h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 2h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 94¢ $58 2h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $27 3h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 3h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL No 37¢ $25 3h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 3h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 31¢ $21 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 62¢ $18 3h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $34 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $37 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 54¢ $112 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 53¢ $14 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 50¢ $85 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 15¢ $11 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 43¢ $31 5h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $18 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,679.87 · official $6,675.96 (match) · 3189 history records