Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd535…307d crypto 105 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (101 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$143 (-8%) realized −$143 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate80%84W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day100.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (101 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -6.2% -15.1% 77% 32% -15.7%
≤30d 105 -6.7% -15.5% 80% 31% -16.9%
≤90d 105 -6.7% -15.5% 80% 31% -16.9%
all 105 -6.7% -15.5% 80% 31% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 31% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 5% -24.8%
15% -31.0% 1% -32.1%
20% -37.8% 1% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$14 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$143
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses84 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage2d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day100.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $67 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $63 +$4 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $54 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$2 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $46 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $41 +$5 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $32 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $38 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$4 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $27 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $30 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $12 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $29 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $17 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $8 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 316 history records