Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:16:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

D5 0xd533…2d8d crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$4 (+7%) realized +$6 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate40%8W / 12L

Drawdown99%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day58.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit84%portable

Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-25.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-17.9%	-25.7%	40%	35%	-6.1%
≤30d	20	-17.9%	-25.7%	40%	35%	-6.1%
≤90d	20	-17.9%	-25.7%	40%	35%	-6.1%
all	20	-17.9%	-25.7%	40%	35%	-6.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover58.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-25.7%	35%	-6.1%
10% ← realistic here	-32.8%	30%	-15.1%
15%	-39.3%	30%	-23.3%
20%	-45.2%	20%	-30.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -37% → late +1% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.08 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$7

Realized+$6

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses8 / 12

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)20 / 25

History coverage1d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day58.0

Drawdown99%

Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Yes	21¢	20¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-2%)
Michael Olise: 1+ goals	Yes	31¢	30¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-10%)
Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots	Yes	40¢	21¢	$2	$1	−$1 (-48%)
Rayan Cherki: 1+ assists	Yes	31¢	21¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-32%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$1	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Jun 16	$3	+$4	+132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Jun 16	$4	+$1	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Jun 16	$3	+$7	+205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Jun 16	$3	+$3	+108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Jun 16	$4	−$2	-48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Jun 16	$3	$0	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 16	$6	−$6	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Jun 16	$3	+$9	+284%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Jun 15	$2	+$1	+40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	SELL Down	64¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$3	1h
Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots	BUY Yes	40¢	$2	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	SELL Down	85¢	$7	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	SELL Down	88¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$1	2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$2	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	SELL Up	34¢	$2	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	SELL Up	34¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$1	2h
Rayan Cherki: 1+ assists	BUY Yes	31¢	$1	2h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	31¢	$2	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	SELL Up	64¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	SELL Up	28¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$1	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.42 · official $7.42 (match) · 63 history records