Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:59:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D5 0xd52d…412d sports 890 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 170d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$25,691 (-6%) realized −$25,697 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%325W / 550L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$445per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$5,561est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$622now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$2,228
14 days−$2,941
30 days−$6,974
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$14,275
other 17% −$9,561
crypto 4% −$1,339
world 2% −$1,160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -14.0% -22.2% 29% 29% -22.6%
≤30d 132 -2.1% -11.4% 41% 38% -17.1%
≤90d 532 -4.0% -13.1% 41% 37% -14.8%
all 875 -6.7% -15.6% 37% 32% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 32% -15.6%
10% -23.7% 29% -23.7%
15% -31.1% 26% -31.0%
20% -37.8% 22% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$563) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$304 vs −$228 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$622
Realized−$25,697
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses325 / 550
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$5,561
Open positions1
Markets (closed)875 / 890
History coverage170d ⚠
Avg bet$445
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 875 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $616 $622 +$6 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $947 −$431 -46%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $221 −$137 -62%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Ghana Jun 18 $124 +$161 +130%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,194 −$294 -25%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $226 +$341 +151%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $564 +$602 +107%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $124 +$135 +109%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $310 −$310 -100%
Darwin Núñez: 2+ goals Jun 16 $159 −$159 -100%
Darwin Núñez: 3+ goals Jun 16 $91 −$91 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $309 −$309 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $339 −$31 -9%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $223 +$118 +53%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $304 −$304 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $192 −$192 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $340 −$340 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 −$10 -5%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $547 +$146 +27%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $511 −$239 -47%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $367 −$367 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $205 +$1,127 +549%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $405 −$405 -100%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $246 −$246 -100%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 14 $408 −$408 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $615 −$608 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $892 −$585 -66%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $243 −$243 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $844 +$779 +92%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $877 −$32 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $456 −$456 -100%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 12 $408 −$408 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $871 +$1,028 +118%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $451 −$365 -81%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $41 −$6 -16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $807 +$334 +41%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $122 +$182 +149%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 11 $101 +$64 +64%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 11 $203 +$170 +84%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,371 +$1,395 +102%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $101 +$69 +68%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $202 +$105 +52%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 11 $203 +$114 +56%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $563 −$563 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $225 +$237 +105%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $106 +$91 +86%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $348 +$287 +82%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $101 +$82 +81%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 09 $102 +$98 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $142 42m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $670 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score AND Will Czechia win on BUY 42¢ $226 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $83 4h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $221 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Ghana SELL 98¢ $285 6h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $379 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $379 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 34¢ $516 8h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 34¢ $516 8h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $568 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 32¢ $522 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $678 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Ghana BUY 42¢ $124 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 45¢ $120 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 15¢ $159 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL 97¢ $259 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $226 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 48¢ $564 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 45¢ $124 2d
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $102 2d
Darwin Núñez: 3+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $91 2d
Darwin Núñez: 2+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $159 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 38¢ $158 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 58¢ $337 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $310 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 47¢ $309 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $308 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $339 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $621.80 · official $843.80 · 3500 history records