Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:01:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd52d…4c12 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$44 (+9%) realized +$45 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$36
politics 31% $0
crypto 14% +$3
finance 1% +$1
world 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 9 +1.7% -8.0% 67% 44% +3.9%
≤90d 12 +3.5% -6.4% 75% 42% +3.9%
all 13 +3.7% -6.1% 77% 38% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 38% +3.8%
10% -15.1% 23% -6.1%
15% -23.3% 8% -15.2%
20% -30.8% 0% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.55 per $1 lost it wins $11.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)13 / 17
History coverage146d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 82¢ 81¢ $98 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-1%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 96¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 95¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $36 $0 +0%
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 26 $40 −$2 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $99 +$38 +39%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $33 +$3 +9%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $49 −$1 -2%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 30 $2 $0 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $6 +$1 +22%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in February? May 05 $1 $0 +2%
Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 05 $1 $0 +9%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 05 $2 $0 +16%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Feb 26 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $27 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $22 1h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 82¢ $99 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $61 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $36 1h
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 86¢ $38 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 98¢ $137 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $36 14d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $99 14d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 86¢ $2 14d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $36 14d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $49 14d
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland BUY Canada 62¢ $1 27d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 63¢ $1 27d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $33 27d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $20 27d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $29 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 81¢ $2 51d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? BUY No 85¢ $1 51d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? BUY No 85¢ $1 51d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 81¢ $2 51d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 81¢ $2 51d
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 86¢ $2 120d
Will XRP reach $1.80 in February? BUY No 98¢ $1 120d
Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 92¢ $1 120d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $1 120d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $1 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.14 · official $207.15 (match) · 61 history records