trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -2.4% | -11.7% | 50% | 0% | -11.8% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 67% | 44% | +3.9% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +3.5% | -6.4% | 75% | 42% | +3.9% |
| all | 13 | +3.7% | -6.1% | 77% | 38% | +3.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.1% | 38% | +3.8% |
| 10% | -15.1% | 23% | -6.1% |
| 15% | -23.3% | 8% | -15.2% |
| 20% | -30.8% | 0% | -23.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 82¢ | 81¢ | $98 | $98 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $61 | $61 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $27 | $27 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $22 | $22 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 26 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Jun 26 | $40 | −$2 | -5% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $99 | +$38 | +39% |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +34% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 11 | $33 | +$3 | +9% |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 11 | $49 | −$1 | -2% |
| World Championships: Canada vs. Finland | May 30 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | May 30 | $2 | $0 | +18% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? | May 30 | $6 | +$1 | +22% |
| Will XRP reach $1.80 in February? | May 05 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch? | May 05 | $1 | $0 | +9% |
| Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? | May 05 | $2 | $0 | +16% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | Feb 26 | $1 | $0 | +7% |