Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:49:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd52c…6c59 sports 696 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,121 (-9%) realized −$6,114 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%209W / 476L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$971est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$293
7 days+$103
14 days+$1
30 days−$1,480
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$5,536
other 24% −$1,151
weather 1% −$234
world 0% +$34
crypto 0% +$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +1.1% -8.6% 27% 25% +0.9%
≤30d 258 -12.1% -20.4% 28% 27% -16.0%
≤90d 685 -11.3% -19.7% 31% 30% -18.3%
all 685 -11.3% -19.7% 31% 30% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 30% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 30% -26.1%
15% -34.4% 29% -33.3%
20% -40.9% 28% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$79 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$6,114
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses209 / 476
Est. fees paid−$971
Open positions3
Markets (closed)685 / 696
History coverage48d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 685 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Over 19¢ 20¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 411 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $38 −$1 -3%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$68 +222%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$49 +96%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $26 +$67 +262%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $15 +$205 +1331%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $56 −$55 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $53 −$27 -50%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $20 +$8 +42%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $30 +$25 +81%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $20 +$66 +325%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 13 $31 +$51 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win Jun 13 $31 +$75 +244%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -96%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 12 $54 −$53 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $69 +$61 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $68 −$58 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $84 −$82 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $72 −$66 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $46 −$17 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 −$4 -12%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $20 $0 -1%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Jun 12 $20 $0 -2%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 12 $31 −$1 -2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 −$4 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $126 +$54 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $101 +$45 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $36 −$35 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $66 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 −$28 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND Saudi Ara BUY 4¢ $26 34m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 57m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 18¢ $10 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $26 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $29 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 AN BUY 1¢ $15 4h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY 2¢ $21 7h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 30¢ $31 10h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $26 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 10h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 11h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 11h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $20 11h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY 11¢ $21 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.51 · official $157.51 · 1450 history records