Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:16:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D5 0xd52a…dceb sports 49 markets active 14h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$34 (+4%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$148
14 days−$148
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$127
crypto 30% −$32
other 7% +$31
politics 4% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -37.3% -43.3% 35% 31% -25.9%
≤30d 49 -37.3% -43.3% 35% 31% -25.9%
≤90d 49 -37.3% -43.3% 35% 31% -25.9%
all 49 -37.3% -43.3% 35% 31% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.3% 31% -25.9%
10% -48.7% 22% -33.0%
15% -53.7% 20% -39.5%
20% -58.2% 16% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 32
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage8d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$8 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$10 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$17 +83%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$31 +51%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs WAZABI (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 Jun 16 $20 +$35 +170%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $39 −$25 -65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $16 −$10 -62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $17 −$7 -40%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $21 −$5 -24%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $91 −$55 -60%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$6 +39%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $22 −$12 -54%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $14 −$10 -70%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$14 +82%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$7 +71%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs BASEMENT BOYS - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$6 +28%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality - Game 5 Jun 13 $7 +$5 +74%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs aimclub - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$8 +41%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $18 −$8 -44%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $26 −$15 -56%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $20 +$24 +119%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $20 +$11 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 58¢ $12 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $13 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $12 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $20 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 15h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY DXA Esports 16¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $21 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records