Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:57:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd527…af7d crypto 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$165 (+1%) realized +$165 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate90%37W / 4L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$506per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$731now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$27
finance 27% +$110
economics 16% +$5
politics 12% −$36
other 7% +$82
sports 3% +$21
world 3% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 2 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 10 +1.7% -7.9% 90% 0% -8.2%
all 41 +0.8% -8.8% 90% 5% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 5% -8.8%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$617) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$57 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$731
Realized+$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses37 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage238d
Avg bet$506
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $731 $731 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 15 $718 +$13 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 26 $1,706 +$22 +1%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 26 $1,196 +$6 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 21 $1,673 +$26 +2%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Apr 21 $653 +$21 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 21 $1,176 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? Mar 30 $641 +$9 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? Mar 28 $499 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 25 $469 +$31 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 21 $635 +$6 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13? Mar 13 $617 +$18 +3%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 09 $608 +$8 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 22 $610 −$1 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on February 11? Feb 13 $506 +$3 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on February 11? Feb 13 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.90 on February 13? Feb 12 $192 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on February 12? Feb 11 $138 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on February 13? Feb 11 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on February 11? Feb 10 $479 +$4 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 February 2-8? Feb 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 February 2-8? Feb 09 $499 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Feb 08 $649 −$50 -8%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 03 $648 +$44 +7%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Dec 31 $273 +$29 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $267 +$7 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 22 $274 +$29 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 04 $253 +$14 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 21 $229 +$24 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 21? Nov 18 $348 −$118 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 14? Nov 15 $345 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on November 13? Nov 14 $345 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k November 3-9? Nov 12 $345 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on November 7? Nov 06 $344 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 3? Nov 02 $343 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on October 30? Nov 02 $343 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $336 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on October 27? Oct 29 $336 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on October 25? Oct 24 $336 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3,500 on October 22? Oct 24 $315 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on October 21? Oct 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 20? Oct 21 $315 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $732 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $731 11h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $505 11d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $506 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $505 20d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $505 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $44 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $461 27d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $718 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $717 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 98¢ $1,201 41d
Trump out as President by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,202 50d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $1,196 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $523 56d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 100¢ $674 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $523 56d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 97¢ $653 56d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 99¢ $1,176 56d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $1,176 59d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 99¢ $1,176 59d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 97¢ $1,150 70d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $650 78d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $500 79d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $499 81d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $499 83d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? BUY No 98¢ $641 86d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $641 86d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $635 92d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13? SELL No 100¢ $634 94d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13? BUY No 97¢ $617 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $730.96 · official $730.96 (match) · 100 history records