Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:26:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D5 0xd526…5efe other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$51 (-3%) realized −$52 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$643
7 days−$21
14 days−$73
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +59.7% +44.5% 71% 71% -10.9%
≤30d 9 +40.1% +26.8% 67% 67% -14.1%
≤90d 9 +40.1% +26.8% 67% 67% -14.1%
all 9 +40.1% +26.8% 67% 67% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.8% 67% -14.1%
10% +14.7% 56% -22.3%
15% +3.6% 44% -29.8%
20% -6.6% 33% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$246 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage10d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $56 $57 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $75 +$21 +28%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $660 −$660 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $39 −$4 -10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $283 +$379 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $180 +$103 +57%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $46 +$134 +291%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $39 +$7 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $53 +$23 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $57 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $35 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 19¢ $35 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $39 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $39 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $39 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $660 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $283 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $180 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $46 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $39 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $76 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $53 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.42 · official $57.42 (match) · 20 history records