Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:57:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd523…032d crypto 496 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,124 (-25%) realized −$8,087 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%134W / 359L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$42
14 days−$42
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$4,480
sports 22% −$2,142
world 8% −$649
other 5% −$1,154
finance 2% +$40
politics 0% −$26
tech 0% −$27
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -33.0% -39.4% 20% 20% -40.7%
≤30d 7 -52.2% -56.7% 14% 14% -41.7%
≤90d 412 -48.4% -53.3% 19% 17% -48.1%
all 493 -32.3% -38.7% 27% 25% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.7% 25% -32.7%
10% -44.6% 22% -39.2%
15% -49.9% 17% -45.1%
20% -54.8% 14% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$41 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$8,087
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses134 / 359
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions3
Markets (closed)493 / 496
History coverage107d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 493 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 26¢ $60 $40 −$20 (-34%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Ghana 19¢ 6¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 −$17 -32%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 +$15 +73%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 16 $26 −$25 -94%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $109 −$56 -51%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 6 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 6 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $5 −$5 -97%
VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5 Apr 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Apr 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 23 $50 −$38 -76%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 23 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 23 $1,361 −$482 -35%
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5) Apr 23 $20 −$1 -6%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $1 $0 -14%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $5 $0 -6%
Real Madrid CF leading at halftime? Apr 15 $15 +$41 +268%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Apr 15 $121 −$89 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Porto win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $120 −$52 -43%
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-04-11? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 4.5 Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 1PM ET Apr 14 $30 −$13 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 3PM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5) Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-11? Apr 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 11 $11 −$11 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 4.5 Apr 11 $20 +$23 +114%
Vissel Kōbe vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 4.5 Apr 11 $30 +$61 +202%
Paris Basketball vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo leading at halftime? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 5AM ET Apr 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $20 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $61 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $35 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $36 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 17¢ $10 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 32d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 32d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $16 32d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $22 32d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 32d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $42 32d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 32d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 6 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 42d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 6 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 42d
VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $10 55d
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5) SELL Nuggets 47¢ $19 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $6 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 55d
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5) BUY Nuggets 49¢ $20 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.18 · official $73.18 (match) · 1607 history records