Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:20:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd522…24ea world 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$4
other 14% +$1
tech 4% $0
politics 3% $0
sports 3% +$1
finance 2% $0
crypto 2% −$4
weather 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.0% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 22% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 +1.7% -8.0% 33% 7% -9.0%
all 41 -1.1% -10.5% 39% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 5% -9.4%
10% -19.1% 2% -18.0%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage491d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $55 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $47 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 27 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $56 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $48 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $54 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $6 +$2 +29%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $16 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $46 +$2 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $46 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $7 $0 -7%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4? Dec 10 $8 $0 +2%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jun 26 $8 $0 +4%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $7 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 10 $2 $0 -3%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Apr 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 7-9m on opening weekend? Mar 17 $13 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 16 $12 $0 +3%
Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on March 12? Mar 11 $12 $0 -0%
Gonzaga vs. Washington State Mar 04 $11 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $50 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $30 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $16 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $1 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $44 20h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $43 20h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $44 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $11 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $11 31h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $3 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $44 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $44 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $41 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $48 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $48 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $18 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $16 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $15 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $15 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 29¢ $15 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 28¢ $5 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 28¢ $9 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $9 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $28 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $32 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.83 · official $49.83 (match) · 134 history records