Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D5 0xd51d…edcb sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$214 (+28%) realized +$237 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$173
14 days+$173
30 days+$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$216
other 28% −$31
world 14% −$2
politics 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +26.3% +14.3% 33% 33% +47.2%
≤30d 8 +50.5% +36.2% 50% 50% +58.0%
≤90d 12 +13.3% +2.5% 42% 42% +36.6%
all 12 +13.3% +2.5% 42% 42% +36.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 42% +36.6%
10% -7.3% 42% +23.6%
15% -16.2% 42% +11.6%
20% -24.4% 42% +0.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$24 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$337
Realized+$237
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions9
Markets (closed)12 / 21
History coverage64d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-48%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $26 −$2 -7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$80 +261%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $104 +$211 +204%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $51 +$67 +131%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 +$11 +115%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $10 +$6 +56%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 02 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? May 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $24 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 2h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $34 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $50 10d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 15d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $40 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $92 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 57¢ $21 17d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 28d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 28d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 31d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 31d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes $16 35d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 40d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $10 43d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $10 45d
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? BUY Yes $10 62d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $337.27 · official $337.27 (match) · 79 history records