Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:10:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd51d…a00e other 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%19W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% $0
other 26% +$2
world 23% $0
economics 11% $0
sports 7% $0
crypto 6% $0
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 11 -3.2% -12.4% 36% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 11 -3.2% -12.4% 36% 0% -9.3%
all 56 -2.2% -11.5% 34% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 2% -9.5%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses19 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage298d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $43 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $44 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $81 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $89 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $68 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 -36%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $6 $0 -2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 12 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 11 $11 $0 +2%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 24 $5 $0 +3%
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on October 31? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Oct 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $5 $0 +6%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? Oct 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Oct 17 $5 $0 +1%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 12 $4 $0 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 12 $1 $0 -25%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $3 $0 -2%
Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series? Oct 09 $3 +$1 +21%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 08 $3 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 07 $37 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $5 $0 -1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 23 $4 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Sep 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $220 September 15-21? Sep 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 21 $17 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 21 $38 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 27 $62 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $43 0m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $43 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $43 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $44 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $39 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $39 22h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $39 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $43 26h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $6 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $33 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $8 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $31 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $43 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $43 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 58¢ $39 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 56¢ $38 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $42 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $42 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 239 history records