Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd51b…90a8
sports · 383 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
−$1,632 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,620 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$1,620
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses185 / 192
Est. fees paid−$622
Open positions6
Markets (closed)377 / 383
History coverage86d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 6 History 377 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$16
14 days−$749
30 days−$2,307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 35¢ 81¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+131%)
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027? No 10¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-55%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 26¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 56¢ 0¢ $450 $0 −$450 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons Pistons 62¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 52¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Baltimore Orioles 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) Thunder 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 52¢ 0¢ $450 $0 −$450 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $15 +$2 +13%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $5 $0 -9%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $15 −$1 -7%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $5 −$3 -51%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $5 +$2 +32%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $10 −$9 -88%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $5 −$3 -53%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $6 −$2 -38%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $183 −$57 -31%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Jun 04 $75 −$14 -19%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $367 −$239 -65%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2 +$3 +165%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 04 $2 +$4 +188%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $182 +$13 +7%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $178 +$38 +21%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $182 −$147 -81%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $4 −$2 -56%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 30 $364 −$358 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $364 +$26 +7%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $365 −$233 -64%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 29 $565 −$65 -12%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 27 $363 +$56 +15%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 26 $366 −$171 -47%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $361 +$44 +12%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 25 $366 +$122 +33%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 24 $15 −$8 -52%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 24 $188 +$28 +15%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $364 +$32 +9%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 23 $365 +$52 +14%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals May 23 $456 −$450 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 22 $456 −$442 -97%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 21 $456 +$87 +19%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $450 +$60 +13%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 20 $455 −$368 -81%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $455 +$60 +13%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox May 15 $456 −$450 -99%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 14 $454 +$89 +20%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 14 $269 +$38 +14%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics May 13 $270 −$170 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 95% −$1,681
crypto 3% +$126
other 1% −$31
world 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
weather 0% −$22
tech 0% −$8
finance 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 66¢ $4 6m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 76¢ $5 6m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 48¢ $5 17m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 51¢ $5 18m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 72¢ $6 30m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 61¢ $5 38m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Minnesota Twins 35¢ $5 48m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 36¢ $5 49m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 63¢ $7 58m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $5 59m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Houston Astros 75¢ $5 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 80¢ $5 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 82¢ $5 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 79¢ $5 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 65¢ $5 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 70¢ $5 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 82¢ $5 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 79¢ $5 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 68¢ $5 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 64¢ $5 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Minnesota Twins 44¢ $5 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 45¢ $5 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 71¢ $5 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 71¢ $5 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $4 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 65¢ $5 2h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 72¢ $5 3h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 72¢ $5 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL San Diego Padres 26¢ $5 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 27¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -17.1% -25.0% 24% 12% -20.9%
≤30d 46 -14.9% -23.0% 41% 30% -29.7%
≤90d 377 -7.7% -16.5% 49% 42% -12.2%
all 377 -7.7% -16.5% 49% 42% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 42% -12.2%
10% -24.5% 27% -20.6%
15% -31.8% 20% -28.3%
20% -38.4% 14% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.03 · official $4.03 (match) · 1649 history records